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Miami FC vs Charleston - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA USA

USL Championship Riccardo Silva Stadium, Miami, FL
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
11:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Miami FC host Charleston in the USL Championship. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Charleston have shipped 1.18 goals a game lately, while Miami FC have conceded 1.61 and scored 1.54. Past meetings favor Charleston slightly — 1-4-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Aug 24, 2026, ending 5:0. xG projections (1.25 - 1.81) back Charleston to edge this. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Miami FC
20%
Draws
35%
Charleston
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Miami FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Miami FC haven't matched Charleston's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Miami FC's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Charleston here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Miami FC Clean Sheet 11%
Charleston Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Miami FC Charleston
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 10 16
Draws 7 4
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 1.54 2.11
Goals Conceded 1.61 1.18
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 24, 2026 USL Championship
Charleston vs Miami FC
5:0
Jul 19, 2025 USL Championship
Charleston vs Miami FC
3:0
Jun 18, 2025 USL Championship
Miami FC vs Charleston
1:0
Jul 19, 2024 USL Championship
Charleston vs Miami FC
2:0
Mar 30, 2024 USL Championship
Miami FC vs Charleston
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Miami FC 56 / 100
Charleston 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Miami FC Charleston

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Miami FC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Miami FC went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Miami FC scored in 71% of their last 28 outings.

Charleston's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Miami FC VS Charleston
1.63 Goals Scored 1.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Miami FC

(Home)
03 Oct
Tampa Bay
1 : 2
Miami FC
30 Sept
Miami FC
4 : 1
Sporting Jax
26 Sept
Indy Eleven
0 : 2
Miami FC
19 Sept
Rhode Island
1 : 2
Miami FC
12 Sept
Brooklyn FC
1 : 1
Miami FC
Page 1 of 6

Charleston

(Away)
26 Sept
Charleston
2 : 0
Rhode Island
19 Sept
Charleston
1 : 0
Monterey Bay
12 Sept
Birmingham Legion
2 : 2
Charleston
02 Sept
Charleston
1 : 2
Hartford Athletic
30 Aug
Las Vegas Lights
0 : 2
Charleston
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tampa Bay 27 15 7 5 46:25 52
2 Detroit City 27 13 8 6 33:20 47
3 Charleston 26 14 4 8 52:31 46
4 Hartford Athletic 26 9 12 5 29:26 39
5 Rhode Island 26 11 5 10 39:29 38
6 Pittsburgh Riverhounds 27 11 5 11 28:27 38
7 Louisville City 26 10 7 9 43:42 37
8 Miami FC 28 9 9 10 38:45 36
9 Indy Eleven 27 9 7 11 33:33 34
10 Loudoun United 26 4 12 10 32:44 24
11 Birmingham Legion 26 4 11 11 36:43 23
12 Brooklyn FC 27 4 6 17 27:55 18
13 Sporting Jax 27 3 5 19 32:73 14
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 El Paso Locomotive 27 14 5 8 46:35 47
2 New Mexico 27 13 7 7 41:32 46
3 Lexington 28 13 5 10 49:33 44
4 Sacramento Republic 27 11 11 5 37:25 44
5 FC Tulsa 28 11 10 7 32:25 43
6 Colorado Springs 27 11 7 9 40:37 40
7 Orange County SC 27 10 9 8 36:42 39
8 San Antonio FC 27 9 11 7 29:29 38
9 Las Vegas Lights 27 10 6 11 35:38 36
10 Oakland Roots 27 8 10 9 33:35 34
11 Phoenix Rising 27 8 9 10 36:40 33
12 Monterey Bay 27 5 6 16 29:47 21
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)