Sport Picks

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Mictlan vs Malacateco

Guatemala Guatemala

Liga Nacional 2025/2026 Estadio La Asuncion, Asuncion Mita
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Fajardo W.
29'
Morales B.
46'
Sub
Vasquez G. In: Ochoa J.
Out: Vasquez G.

AI Match Summary

Mictlan in this Liga Nacional 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mictlan.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Mictlan
35%
Draws
41%
Malacateco
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Malacateco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Mictlan at 1.07 per game, Malacateco at 0.9.
  • Win probability leans Malacateco's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular Liga Nacional 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Mictlan Clean Sheet 16%
Malacateco Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mictlan Malacateco
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 8 8
Draws 8 6
Losses 14 15
Goals Scored 1.07 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 19, 2026 Liga Nacional
Mictlan vs Malacateco
1:0
Jan 30, 2026 Liga Nacional
Malacateco vs Mictlan
2:0
Oct 5, 2025 Liga Nacional
Malacateco vs Mictlan
1:0
Jul 27, 2025 Liga Nacional
Mictlan vs Malacateco
2:2
Mar 26, 2017 Liga Nacional
Malacateco vs Mictlan
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mictlan Compare

Top Goalscorer Fajardo W.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Malacateco Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mictlan 23 / 100
Malacateco 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mictlan Malacateco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Malacateco Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Mictlan scored in 63% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Malacateco conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Mictlan has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Mictlan VS Malacateco
1.38 Goals Scored 0.75
2.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 13%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Mictlan

(Home)
26 Apr
Aurora F.C.
1 : 1
Mictlan
19 Apr
Mictlan
2 : 3
Xelaju
16 Apr
Mictlan
2 : 2
Deportivo Mixco
12 Apr
Marquense
3 : 0
Mictlan
05 Apr
Mictlan
1 : 1
Comunicaciones
Page 1 of 6

Malacateco

(Away)
08 Aug
Malacateco
2 : 2
Xelaju
02 Aug
Guastatoya
4 : 0
Malacateco
26 Jul
Malacateco
1 : 1
Coban Imperial
26 Apr
Malacateco
1 : 0
Comunicaciones
20 Apr
Antigua
2 : 1
Malacateco
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Xelaju 22 11 6 5 34:19 39
2 Municipal 22 11 5 6 32:21 38
3 Deportivo Mixco 22 10 6 6 30:26 36
4 Comunicaciones 22 11 2 9 28:26 35
5 Antigua 22 9 7 6 34:29 34
6 Coban Imperial 22 8 8 6 29:22 32
7 Guastatoya 22 8 7 7 29:21 31
8 Marquense 22 9 3 10 25:29 30
9 Mictlan 22 7 6 9 25:36 27
10 Malacateco 22 6 4 12 19:25 22
11 Aurora F.C. 22 4 8 10 14:30 20
12 Deportivo Achuapa 22 5 4 13 17:32 19
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)