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Migjorn vs UD Poblense

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Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2024/2025
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Match Events

24' Event
Huescar R.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2024/2025 game between Migjorn and UD Poblense finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Migjorn.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Migjorn
15%
Draws
57%
UD Poblense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: UD Poblense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and UD Poblense come out ahead of Migjorn on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans UD Poblense's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 39%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Migjorn Clean Sheet 13%
UD Poblense Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Migjorn UD Poblense
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 4 12
Draws 3 7
Losses 22 10
Goals Scored 0.72 1
Goals Conceded 2.55 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 0.93 1.65
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Migjorn vs UD Poblense
1:0
Oct 12, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
UD Poblense vs Migjorn
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Migjorn Compare

Top Goalscorer Huescar R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

UD Poblense Compare

Avg xG / game 1.5
Avg xA / game 0.92

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Migjorn 22 / 100
UD Poblense 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Migjorn UD Poblense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UD Poblense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

UD Poblense's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Attacking prowess: Migjorn scored in 59% of their last 29 outings.

UD Poblense let in goals in 59% of their last 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Migjorn VS UD Poblense
0.6 Goals Scored 1.5
1.8 Goals Conceded 1.25
40% Over 1.5 75%
40% Over 2.5 63%
40% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Migjorn

(Home)
27 Sept
Migjorn
1 : 0
Binissalem
19 Sept
Manacor
5 : 1
Migjorn
12 Sept
Migjorn
1 : 3
SD Ibiza
06 Sept
PE Sant Jordi
1 : 0
Migjorn
11 May
Migjorn
1 : 3
Porreres
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UD Poblense

(Away)
27 Sept
UD Poblense
1 : 0
Valencia B
20 Sept
Alcoyano
2 : 0
UD Poblense
13 Sept
UD Poblense
1 : 2
Castellonense
06 Sept
La Nucia
1 : 0
UD Poblense
14 Aug
UD Poblense
1 : 0
Baleares
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UD Poblense 34 22 6 6 47:17 72
2 Constancia 34 18 13 3 55:31 67
3 Formentera 34 19 9 6 68:34 66
4 Porreres 34 17 11 6 51:32 62
5 Penya Independent 34 17 7 10 59:34 58
6 Platges de Calvia 34 14 12 8 51:37 54
7 Manacor 34 13 12 9 54:36 51
8 Alcudia 34 13 8 13 51:53 47
9 Binissalem 34 13 8 13 35:34 47
10 Llosetense 34 12 8 14 47:45 44
11 Santanyi 34 10 13 11 40:45 43
12 Mercadal 34 10 10 14 40:43 40
13 Felanitx 34 10 10 14 33:50 40
14 Collerense 34 9 12 13 42:48 39
15 Portmany 34 8 13 13 43:51 37
16 PE Sant Jordi 34 8 6 20 30:52 30
17 Campos 34 4 8 22 31:75 20
18 Migjorn 34 4 4 26 22:82 16
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2024/2025 (Play Offs)