Sport Picks
Match Events
3'
3'
Lisbie K.
Assist: Dykes L.
10'
10'
Lisbie K.
Assist: Taylor C.
17'
17'
Cundle L.
Assist: Neghli C.
AI Match Summary
The Championship game between Millwall and Derby finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Millwall.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
64%
20%
16%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Millwall
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
64%
/ High Confidence
- Derby haven't matched Millwall's recent run of results.
- Millwall are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- European nights carry their own weight — this Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Millwall Clean Sheet 20%
Derby Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Millwall | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 12 | 7 |
| Draws | 7 | 5 |
| Losses | 11 | 17 |
| Goals Scored | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.2 | 1.72 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 31, 2026 Championship
Millwall vs Derby
4:1
Mar 10, 2026 Championship
Millwall vs Derby
1:0
Dec 10, 2025 Championship
Derby vs Millwall
1:1
Feb 22, 2025 Championship
Derby vs Millwall
0:1
Oct 19, 2024 Championship
Millwall vs Derby
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Millwall Compare
Top Goalscorer Lisbie K.
2 Goals Assists Leader Cundle L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Derby Compare
Top Goalscorer Bilbija F.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Millwall 85 / 100
Derby 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Millwall Derby
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Millwall Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Derby let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.
Millwall found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).
H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.
Away concern: Derby has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Millwall VS Derby
1.13 Goals Scored 0.75
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.88
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Millwall
(Home) 03 Nov
Birmingham
3 : 0 Millwall
31 Oct
Millwall
4 : 1 Derby
24 Oct
Portsmouth
2 : 1 Millwall
17 Oct
Millwall
2 : 2 Lincoln City
13 Oct
Millwall
0 : 1 Swansea
Page 1 of 6
31 Oct
Millwall
4 : 1 Derby
17 Oct
Millwall
2 : 2 Lincoln City
13 Oct
Millwall
0 : 1 Swansea
19 Sept
Millwall
2 : 2 West Ham
08 Sept
Millwall
0 : 1 Newcastle Utd
Page 1 of 3
Derby
(Away) 03 Nov
Derby
0 : 4 Norwich
31 Oct
Millwall
4 : 1 Derby
24 Oct
Sheffield Utd
1 : 1 Derby
17 Oct
Derby
0 : 1 Stoke City
14 Oct
QPR
4 : 1 Derby
Page 1 of 6
31 Oct
Millwall
4 : 1 Derby
24 Oct
Sheffield Utd
1 : 1 Derby
14 Oct
QPR
4 : 1 Derby
19 Sept
Burnley
1 : 1 Derby
05 Sept
West Ham
3 : 0 Derby
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 | Wolves | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 | Birmingham | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 | Stoke City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 | Swansea | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 | West Brom | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 | Southampton | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 | West Ham | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 | Sheffield Utd | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 | Portsmouth | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 | QPR | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 | Norwich | 14 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 | Millwall | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 | Blackburn | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 | Bristol City | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 | Bolton | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 19:26 | 17 |
| 18 | Cardiff | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 | Lincoln City | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 | Watford | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 | Charlton | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 | Burnley | 14 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 | Derby | 14 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 11:29 | 7 |
| 24 | Preston | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Championship 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs)
Relegation - League One 2027/2028 (Main)
