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Millwall vs Hull City

England England

Championship 2025/2026 The Den
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Millwall play Hull City in the Championship 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Millwall averaged 1.41 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. Hull City averaged 1.33 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. In past meetings, Millwall won 1, Hull City won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 11, 2026 ended 0:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Millwall and 1.00 for Hull City. This points to a Millwall double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Millwall
23%
Draws
38%
Hull City
Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Millwall

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Millwall picked up more points recently compared to Hull City.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 52%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%
Millwall Clean Sheet 23%
Hull City Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 66%
Second Half Goal 69%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Millwall Hull City
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 14 14
Draws 7 7
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 1.41 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 11, 2026 Championship
Millwall vs Hull City
0:2
May 8, 2026 Championship
Hull City vs Millwall
0:0
Mar 7, 2026 Championship
Hull City vs Millwall
1:3
Dec 13, 2025 Championship
Millwall vs Hull City
1:3
Jan 18, 2025 Championship
Millwall vs Hull City
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Millwall Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Hull City Compare

Top Goalscorer Belloumi M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gelhardt J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Millwall 40 / 100
Hull City 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Millwall Hull City

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Millwall or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26%
3.23
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.8%
2.17
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Millwall attacking → ← attacking Hull City

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Millwall scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Hull City let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Millwall went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Hull City lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

49 Points in last 5 49
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25