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Millwall vs Swansea - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

Championship The Den, London
Tue, Oct 13, 2026
VS
06:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Millwall host Swansea in the Championship. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Recent numbers: Millwall at 1.28 goals for, 1.14 against; Swansea at 1.32 for, 1.21 against. Past meetings favor Millwall slightly — 4-0-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jan 4, 2026, ending 2:1. The numbers (1.13 xG vs 1.69) point toward Millwall. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Millwall
30%
Draws
47%
Swansea
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Swansea

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Millwall haven't matched Swansea's recent run of results.
  • 47% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Millwall have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Millwall Clean Sheet 13%
Swansea Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Millwall Swansea
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 12 13
Draws 7 7
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.28 1.32
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 4, 2026 Championship
Millwall vs Swansea
2:1
Sep 27, 2025 Championship
Swansea vs Millwall
1:1
Apr 26, 2025 Championship
Millwall vs Swansea
1:0
Oct 26, 2024 Championship
Swansea vs Millwall
0:1
May 4, 2024 Championship
Swansea vs Millwall
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Millwall 31 / 100
Swansea 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Millwall Swansea

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Swansea Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Millwall scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Swansea let in goals in 68% of their last 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Millwall has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Millwall VS Swansea
1.5 Goals Scored 1.63
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Millwall

(Home)
19 Sept
Millwall
2 : 2
West Ham
15 Sept
Middlesbrough
2 : 2
Millwall
12 Sept
Blackburn
3 : 1
Millwall
08 Sept
Millwall
0 : 1
Newcastle Utd
05 Sept
Millwall
4 : 0
Bolton
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Swansea

(Away)
19 Sept
Lincoln City
1 : 2
Swansea
12 Sept
Swansea
3 : 1
Burnley
08 Sept
Southampton
3 : 1
Swansea
05 Sept
Swansea
0 : 0
Wrexham
01 Sept
Swansea
2 : 0
Watford
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Swansea 8 5 2 1 13:6 17
2 West Ham 8 4 3 1 22:11 15
3 Middlesbrough 8 4 3 1 16:12 15
4 Wolves 7 4 2 1 15:10 14
5 West Brom 8 4 2 2 10:8 14
6 QPR 8 3 4 1 10:7 13
7 Stoke City 8 4 1 3 13:12 13
8 Bristol City 8 4 1 3 11:12 13
9 Charlton 8 3 3 2 7:10 12
10 Birmingham 8 2 5 1 12:11 11
11 Millwall 8 3 2 3 15:15 11
12 Lincoln City 8 3 2 3 7:8 11
13 Southampton 8 4 2 2 19:10 10
14 Wrexham 8 2 4 2 9:12 10
15 Bolton 8 3 1 4 11:15 10
16 Blackburn 8 2 3 3 12:12 9
17 Norwich 8 3 0 5 16:17 9
18 Sheffield Utd 8 2 3 3 9:11 9
19 Portsmouth 7 2 2 3 9:10 8
20 Watford 8 2 2 4 7:10 8
21 Cardiff 8 1 4 3 10:12 7
22 Derby 8 1 2 5 7:14 5
23 Preston 8 1 1 6 8:15 4
24 Burnley 8 0 4 4 9:17 4
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Championship 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs)
Relegation - League One 2027/2028 (Main)