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Mindelense vs Ultramarina

Cape Verde Cape Verde

Campeonato Nacional 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Djana B.
52' Event
dos Santos L.
90' Event
Djana B.

AI Match Summary

Mindelense in this Campeonato Nacional 2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mindelense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Mindelense
30%
Draws
12%
Ultramarina
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mindelense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Mindelense lately — more wins on the board than Ultramarina.
  • Mindelense are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Campeonato Nacional 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Mindelense Clean Sheet 20%
Ultramarina Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mindelense Ultramarina
Matches Played 44 33
Wins 21 8
Draws 12 7
Losses 11 18
Goals Scored 1.27 1.09
Goals Conceded 0.82 1.73
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2025 Campeonato Nacional
Mindelense vs Ultramarina
2:1
Jul 1, 2017 Campeonato Nacional
Mindelense vs Ultramarina
0:2
Jun 27, 2017 Campeonato Nacional
Ultramarina vs Mindelense
0:0
May 9, 2015 Campeonato Nacional
Mindelense vs Ultramarina
3:0
Jun 1, 2013 Campeonato Nacional
Mindelense vs Ultramarina
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mindelense Compare

Top Goalscorer Djana B.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Ultramarina Compare

Top Goalscorer dos Santos L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mindelense 85 / 100
Ultramarina 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mindelense Ultramarina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mindelense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ultramarina has conceded goals in 85% of their last 33 outings.

Mindelense's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 44 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Solid form: Mindelense remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Mindelense VS Ultramarina
2.13 Goals Scored 0.5
1 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 67%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Mindelense

(Home)
04 Jul
Palmeira
3 : 2
Mindelense
27 Jun
Mindelense
2 : 1
Academica Porto Novo
20 Jun
Academica Porto Novo
2 : 2
Mindelense
14 Jun
SC Atletico
1 : 3
Mindelense
06 Jun
Mindelense
2 : 1
Cutelinho
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Ultramarina

(Away)
24 May
Ultramarina
0 : 0
Sanjoanenses
18 May
Boavista da Praia
3 : 0
Ultramarina
11 May
Ultramarina
1 : 1
Academica Praia
02 May
Palmeira
3 : 0
Ultramarina
26 Apr
Mindelense
2 : 1
Ultramarina
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Boavista da Praia 6 4 1 1 12:3 13
2 Palmeira 6 3 3 0 9:4 12
3 Sanjoanenses 6 3 3 0 6:2 12
4 Paulense 6 3 2 1 9:5 11
5 Mindelense 6 2 4 0 12:8 10
6 Academica Praia 6 2 2 2 6:8 8
7 Sport Sal-Rei 6 1 2 3 5:7 5
8 Ultramarina 6 1 2 3 3:9 5
9 Scorpion Vermelho 6 0 2 4 5:14 2
10 Botafogo 6 0 1 5 1:8 1
Promotion - Campeonato Nacional 2025 (Play Offs)