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Mingachevir vs Gancabasar - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa
Our Tip

Match Events

40' Event
Achimi D.
(Penalty)
74' Event
Achimi D.
(Penalty)
79' Event
Ahmadov S.

AI Match Summary

Gancabasar in this I Liqa matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Gancabasar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Mingachevir
15%
Draws
65%
Gancabasar
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Gancabasar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Mingachevir have won more games recently than Gancabasar.
  • Model gives Gancabasar a 65% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Mingachevir Clean Sheet 10%
Gancabasar Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mingachevir Gancabasar
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 12 11
Draws 6 4
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 1.69 1.77
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 2.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 17, 2026 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs Gancabasar
0:3
Apr 22, 2026 I Liqa
Gancabasar vs Mingachevir
2:1
Dec 10, 2025 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs Gancabasar
2:0
Sep 17, 2025 I Liqa
Gancabasar vs Mingachevir
1:3
Apr 17, 2025 I Liqa
Gancabasar vs Mingachevir
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mingachevir Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Gancabasar Compare

Top Goalscorer Ahmadov S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.1
Avg xA / game 1.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mingachevir 10 / 100
Gancabasar 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mingachevir Gancabasar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gancabasar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Mingachevir scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Gancabasar's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Mingachevir stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mingachevir VS Gancabasar
1.38 Goals Scored 2.38
2.25 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Mingachevir

(Home)
27 Oct
Gabala
3 : 0
Mingachevir
21 Oct
FC Khankendi
0 : 1
Mingachevir
15 Oct
Mingachevir
1 : 4
Shimal
09 Oct
MOIK Baku
3 : 0
Mingachevir
17 Sept
Mingachevir
0 : 3
Gancabasar
Page 1 of 6

Gancabasar

(Away)
05 Nov
Sabail
2 : 2
Gancabasar
29 Oct
FC Khankendi
2 : 3
Gancabasar
22 Oct
Gancabasar
7 : 0
Zaqatala PFK
16 Oct
Karvan
2 : 1
Gancabasar
10 Oct
Gancabasar
2 : 0
Baku Sporting
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gancabasar 7 5 1 1 19:6 16
2 Sahdag Qusar 6 5 0 1 14:2 15
3 MOIK Baku 7 4 2 1 13:5 14
4 Karvan 7 4 1 2 14:8 13
5 Sabail 7 3 3 1 10:7 12
6 Shimal 7 2 2 3 14:15 8
7 FC Khankendi 7 1 3 3 5:8 6
8 Zaqatala PFK 7 1 2 4 7:22 5
9 Mingachevir 6 1 1 4 5:14 4
10 Baku Sporting 7 0 1 6 4:18 1
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa (Relegation)