Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mingachevir vs MOIK Baku

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Mingachevir play MOIK Baku in the I Liqa. Mingachevir are favorites here. Recently, Mingachevir averaged 2.38 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. MOIK Baku averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1.63 conceded. In past meetings, Mingachevir won 5, MOIK Baku won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 15, 2026 ended 3:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.00 for Mingachevir and 1.19 for MOIK Baku. This points to a Mingachevir double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Mingachevir
6%
Draws
4%
MOIK Baku
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Mingachevir

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Mingachevir has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to MOIK Baku.
  • Model forecasts a 90% win probability edge for Mingachevir.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in I Liqa provide steady trend data.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Mingachevir Clean Sheet 20%
MOIK Baku Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mingachevir MOIK Baku
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 17 9
Draws 6 7
Losses 8 14
Goals Scored 2.38 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 15, 2026 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs MOIK Baku
3:1
Feb 25, 2026 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs MOIK Baku
2:0
Nov 20, 2025 I Liqa
MOIK Baku vs Mingachevir
0:3
May 16, 2025 I Liqa
MOIK Baku vs Mingachevir
1:3
Mar 14, 2025 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs MOIK Baku
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mingachevir Compare

Top Goalscorer Haziyev B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kalunga K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19

MOIK Baku Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mingachevir 85 / 100
MOIK Baku 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mingachevir MOIK Baku

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MIN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mingachevir scored in 81% of their last 31 games.

MOIK Baku let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Mingachevir went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

MOIK Baku lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mingachevir VS MOIK Baku
2.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Safa Baku27169252:2157
2Mingachevir27156655:2751
3Sabail27148546:2150
4Baku Sporting271310440:2349
5Sahdag Qusar27127836:2743
6MOIK Baku27961233:4033
7Zaqatala PFK27841527:4428
8Cebrayil27731740:5624
9Shimal27551723:6120
10Difai Agsu27461728:6018