Sport Picks

Azerbaijan

I Liqa

Mingachevir

5 - 2

Safa Baku

Our Tip

Match Events

Mustafayev E.

50'

Kalunga K.

55'

Zamanov E.

(Penalty)

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The I Liqa game between Mingachevir and Safa Baku finished 5-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mingachevir.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%

Mingachevir

28%

Draws

22%

Safa Baku

Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Mingachevir

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence

Look at the last few games and Safa Baku come out ahead of Mingachevir on wins alone.
Model gives Mingachevir a 50% chance of winning this.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 69%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%

Mingachevir Clean Sheet 68%

Safa Baku Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Mingachevir	Safa Baku
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	16	17
Draws	6	9
Losses	8	4
Goals Scored	2.38	1.25
Goals Conceded	1.25	0.75
Expected Goals (xG)	2.38	1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.25	0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 3, 2026 I Liqa

Mingachevir vs Safa Baku

Possession: 41% - 51% Cards: 1 - 0

5:2

Feb 19, 2026 I Liqa

Safa Baku vs Mingachevir

Possession: 46% - 42% Cards: 0 - 0

2:2

Nov 5, 2025 I Liqa

Mingachevir vs Safa Baku

Possession: 41% - 48% Cards: 2 - 3

2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mingachevir Compare

Top Goalscorer Qarayev T.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Mustafayev E.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.83

Avg xA / game 1.19

Safa Baku Compare

Top Goalscorer Ebrahimzadeh A.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.14

Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mingachevir 59 / 100

Safa Baku 22 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Mingachevir Safa Baku

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MIN Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mingachevir scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Historical meetings average 5.33 goals per match.

Solid form: Mingachevir remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Safa Baku let in goals in 50% of their last 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Mingachevir VS Safa Baku

2.38 Goals Scored 1.25

1.25 Goals Conceded 0.75

88% Over 1.5 50%

63% Over 2.5 38%

25% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Safa Baku	27	16	9	2	52:21	57
2	Mingachevir	27	15	6	6	55:27	51
3	Sabail	27	14	8	5	46:21	50
4	Baku Sporting	27	13	10	4	40:23	49
5	Sahdag Qusar	27	12	7	8	36:27	43
6	MOIK Baku	27	9	6	12	33:40	33
7	Zaqatala PFK	27	8	4	15	27:44	28
8	Cebrayil	27	7	3	17	40:56	24
9	Shimal	27	5	5	17	23:61	20
10	Difai Agsu	27	4	6	17	28:60	18