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Mingachevir vs Shimal

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa
Wed, Oct 14, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Mingachevir host Shimal in the I Liqa. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Shimal have shipped 2.23 goals a game lately, while Mingachevir have conceded 1.26 and scored 1.9. Head-to-head, Mingachevir have won 3 to Shimal's 0, with 0 draws. They last met on Apr 9, 2026, ending 0:3. The numbers (1.88 xG vs 1.25) point toward Mingachevir. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Mingachevir
20%
Draws
51%
Shimal
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Shimal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Shimal haven't matched Mingachevir's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Mingachevir's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular I Liqa form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Mingachevir have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Mingachevir Clean Sheet 19%
Shimal Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mingachevir Shimal
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 15 6
Draws 7 6
Losses 9 19
Goals Scored 1.9 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.26 2.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 9, 2026 I Liqa
Shimal vs Mingachevir
0:3
Feb 7, 2026 I Liqa
Shimal vs Mingachevir
0:3
Oct 16, 2025 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs Shimal
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mingachevir 40 / 100
Shimal 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mingachevir Shimal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mingachevir Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mingachevir found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (31 games).

Shimal has conceded goals in 87% of their last 31 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.33 goals per match.

Solid form: Mingachevir remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Mingachevir VS Shimal
2.38 Goals Scored 1
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Mingachevir

(Home)
17 Sept
Mingachevir
0 : 3
Gancabasar
10 Sept
Sabail
2 : 1
Mingachevir
04 Sept
Mingachevir
2 : 2
Zaqatala PFK
28 May
Gabala
2 : 0
Mingachevir
22 May
Mingachevir
4 : 1
Sabail
Page 1 of 7

Shimal

(Away)
17 Sept
Shimal
1 : 4
Sahdag Qusar
11 Sept
MOIK Baku
1 : 1
Shimal
04 Sept
Shimal
1 : 2
Gancabasar
27 May
Shimal
2 : 1
Lokbatan
21 May
Gancabasar
2 : 3
Shimal
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sahdag Qusar 3 3 0 0 7:1 9
2 Gancabasar 3 3 0 0 7:2 9
3 Sabail 3 2 1 0 4:2 7
4 Karvan 3 2 0 1 6:2 6
5 MOIK Baku 3 1 1 1 3:2 4
6 Zaqatala PFK 3 1 1 1 5:5 4
7 FC Khankendi 3 0 1 2 2:5 1
8 Mingachevir 3 0 1 2 3:7 1
9 Shimal 3 0 1 2 3:7 1
10 Baku Sporting 3 0 0 3 0:7 0
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa (Relegation)