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MKS Mlawa vs Lidzbark Warmimski - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group I
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

MKS Mlawa host Lidzbark Warmimski in the III Liga - Group I. Recent head-to-head results give a strong hint here. MKS Mlawa have averaged 2.16 scored and 1.81 conceded recently, against Lidzbark Warmimski's 1.11 scored and 1.54 conceded. Past meetings favor MKS Mlawa slightly — 2-0-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jul 16, 2025, ending 3:0. xG projections (2.13 - 2.25) back MKS Mlawa to edge this. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
MKS Mlawa
15%
Draws
46%
Lidzbark Warmimski
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lidzbark Warmimski

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • MKS Mlawa carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on MKS Mlawa taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors MKS Mlawa here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
MKS Mlawa Clean Sheet 10%
Lidzbark Warmimski Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric MKS Mlawa Lidzbark Warmimski
Matches Played 32 28
Wins 16 7
Draws 4 11
Losses 12 10
Goals Scored 2.16 1.11
Goals Conceded 1.81 1.54
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 16, 2025 Club Friendly
MKS Mlawa vs Lidzbark Warmimski
3:0
Mar 22, 2025 III Liga - Group I
MKS Mlawa vs Lidzbark Warmimski
1:1
Aug 25, 2024 III Liga - Group I
Lidzbark Warmimski vs MKS Mlawa
2:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

MKS Mlawa 40 / 100
Lidzbark Warmimski 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
MKS Mlawa Lidzbark Warmimski

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

MKS Mlawa scored in 84% of their last 32 games.

Lidzbark Warmimski let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 3.67 goals.

MKS Mlawa has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

MKS Mlawa VS Lidzbark Warmimski
2.38 Goals Scored 1.38
3.13 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
75% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

MKS Mlawa

(Home)
03 Oct
MKS Mlawa
2 : 4
Swit Mazowiecki
25 Sept
Zabkovia Zabki
3 : 4
MKS Mlawa
19 Sept
MKS Mlawa
4 : 1
Troszyn
12 Sept
Jagiellonia II
7 : 4
MKS Mlawa
06 Sept
MKS Mlawa
0 : 2
LKS Lodz II
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Lidzbark Warmimski

(Away)
03 Oct
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
1 : 2
Lidzbark Warmimski
26 Sept
Lidzbark Warmimski
1 : 1
KTS Weszlo
19 Sept
Pelikan
1 : 0
Lidzbark Warmimski
12 Sept
Lidzbark Warmimski
1 : 2
Warta Sieradz
06 Sept
Suwalki
1 : 3
Lidzbark Warmimski
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 KTS Weszlo 11 8 2 1 24:10 26
2 Suwalki 11 6 4 1 19:10 22
3 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 11 6 3 2 27:18 21
4 Pelikan 11 6 2 3 17:13 20
5 Swit Mazowiecki 11 6 2 3 20:12 20
6 Plock II 11 5 3 3 22:18 18
7 Zabkovia Zabki 10 5 1 4 19:18 16
8 Jagiellonia II 10 4 3 3 22:20 15
9 Warta Sieradz 10 4 3 3 18:16 15
10 Widzew Lodz II 10 4 2 4 21:18 14
11 Olimpia Zambrow 11 4 2 5 23:27 14
12 Tomaszow Mazowiecki 11 4 1 6 21:23 13
13 Olimpia Elblag 11 4 1 6 16:20 13
14 LKS Lodz II 10 3 2 5 16:19 11
15 MKS Mlawa 11 3 1 7 22:32 10
16 Lidzbark Warmimski 11 2 3 6 16:22 9
17 Troszyn 10 1 4 5 12:24 7
18 LKS Lomza 11 0 3 8 10:25 3
Promotion - Division 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Division 2 (Relegation - Play Offs)