Sport Picks
ML Vitebsk vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Belarus
Vysshaya Liga Vitebsk CSK, Vitebsk 
Match Events
5'
5'
Antilevskiy D.
Assist: Tsallagov D.
45'
45'
Gromyko V.
Assist: Cleonise D.
45'
45'
Antilevskiy D.
AI Match Summary
The Vysshaya Liga game between ML Vitebsk and Arsenal Dzerzhinsk finished 5-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward ML Vitebsk.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
49%
35%
16%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: ML Vitebsk
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
49%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and ML Vitebsk come out ahead of Arsenal Dzerzhinsk on wins alone.
- ML Vitebsk are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
ML Vitebsk Clean Sheet 20%
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | ML Vitebsk | Arsenal Dzerzhinsk |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 16 | 8 |
| Draws | 8 | 9 |
| Losses | 5 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.97 | 1.17 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 1.6 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.69 | 0.69 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 18, 2026 Vysshaya Liga
ML Vitebsk vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
5:1
May 17, 2026 Vysshaya Liga
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk vs ML Vitebsk
0:3
Nov 15, 2025 Club Friendly
ML Vitebsk vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
0:0
Aug 10, 2025 Vysshaya Liga
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk vs ML Vitebsk
0:4
Mar 29, 2025 Vysshaya Liga
ML Vitebsk vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
2:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
ML Vitebsk Compare
Top Goalscorer Gromyko V.
2 Goals Assists Leader Bosic R.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk Compare
Top Goalscorer Antilevskiy D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
ML Vitebsk 85 / 100
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
ML Vitebsk Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick ML Vitebsk Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.
ML Vitebsk has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
ML Vitebsk found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).
Defensive concern: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.
Scoring Trends
ML Vitebsk VS Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
1.13 Goals Scored 0.63
0.75 Goals Conceded 2.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
ML Vitebsk
(Home) 18 Sept
ML Vitebsk
5 : 1 Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
13 Sept
Dnepr Mogilev
1 : 1 ML Vitebsk
06 Sept
ML Vitebsk
0 : 0 Din. Minsk
02 Sept
ML Vitebsk
1 : 1 Belshina
29 Aug
Dynamo Brest
1 : 3 ML Vitebsk
Page 1 of 6
18 Sept
ML Vitebsk
5 : 1 Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
06 Sept
ML Vitebsk
0 : 0 Din. Minsk
02 Sept
ML Vitebsk
1 : 1 Belshina
23 Aug
ML Vitebsk
0 : 0 BATE
19 Aug
ML Vitebsk
2 : 0 FK Baranovici
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Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
(Away) 09 Oct
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
0 : 1 Dynamo Brest
03 Oct
FC Minsk
0 : 0 Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
18 Sept
ML Vitebsk
5 : 1 Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
12 Sept
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
0 : 0 FK Baranovici
07 Sept
Isloch Minsk
1 : 1 Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
FC Minsk
0 : 0 Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
18 Sept
ML Vitebsk
5 : 1 Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
07 Sept
Isloch Minsk
1 : 1 Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
22 Aug
Belshina
2 : 0 Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
07 Aug
Naftan
3 : 0 Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isloch Minsk | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 37:18 | 45 |
| 2 | ML Vitebsk | 21 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 42:17 | 44 |
| 3 | Din. Minsk | 21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 37:16 | 43 |
| 4 | Dynamo Brest | 24 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 39:23 | 43 |
| 5 | FC Gomel | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 33:18 | 39 |
| 6 | Neman | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 26:20 | 37 |
| 7 | Vitebsk | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 28:21 | 36 |
| 8 | FC Minsk | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 30:29 | 34 |
| 9 | Zhodino | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 29:29 | 30 |
| 10 | Slavia Mozyr | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 23:26 | 25 |
| 11 | FK Baranovici | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 24:38 | 25 |
| 12 | Arsenal Dzerzhinsk | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 24:42 | 23 |
| 13 | Belshina | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 22:36 | 21 |
| 14 | BATE | 22 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 16:27 | 18 |
| 15 | Dnepr Mogilev | 23 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 20:36 | 16 |
| 16 | Naftan | 23 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 20:54 | 14 |
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Vysshaya Liga (Relegation)
Relegation - Pershaya Liga 2027 (Main)
