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ML Vitebsk vs Naftan

Belarus Belarus

Vysshaya Liga Vitebsk CSK, Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk Logo

ML Vitebsk

2 - 1
FT
Naftan Logo

Naftan

Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Pranovich I.
Assist: Yakovlev V.
35' Event
Kontsevoy A.
Assist: Mesarovic A.
46'
Sub
Galyata D. In: Nicholson S.
Out: Galyata D.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

ML Vitebsk in this Vysshaya Liga matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored ML Vitebsk.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
ML Vitebsk
30%
Draws
18%
Naftan
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: ML Vitebsk

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to ML Vitebsk lately — more wins on the board than Naftan.
  • ML Vitebsk are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Vysshaya Liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors ML Vitebsk here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
ML Vitebsk Clean Sheet 68%
Naftan Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric ML Vitebsk Naftan
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 16 4
Draws 7 6
Losses 6 18
Goals Scored 1.83 1.04
Goals Conceded 1.03 2.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 27, 2026 Vysshaya Liga
ML Vitebsk vs Naftan
2:1
Jan 24, 2026 Club Friendly
ML Vitebsk vs Naftan
0:0
Aug 22, 2025 Vysshaya Liga
ML Vitebsk vs Naftan
2:0
Apr 12, 2025 Vysshaya Liga
Naftan vs ML Vitebsk
0:3
Jul 14, 2024 Belarusian Cup
ML Vitebsk vs Naftan
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

ML Vitebsk Compare

Top Goalscorer Kontsevoy A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bulanov M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Naftan Compare

Top Goalscorer Pranovich I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

ML Vitebsk 95 / 100
Naftan 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
ML Vitebsk Naftan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ML Vitebsk Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Naftan has conceded goals in 82% of their last 28 outings.

Recent resilience: ML Vitebsk stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

ML Vitebsk scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

ML Vitebsk VS Naftan
1.13 Goals Scored 1.13
0.5 Goals Conceded 2.63
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

ML Vitebsk

(Home)
02 Sept
ML Vitebsk
1 : 1
Belshina
29 Aug
Dynamo Brest
1 : 3
ML Vitebsk
23 Aug
ML Vitebsk
0 : 0
BATE
19 Aug
ML Vitebsk
2 : 0
FK Baranovici
13 Aug
ML Vitebsk
2 : 2
Borac Banja Luka
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Naftan

(Away)
02 Sept
Din. Minsk
5 : 1
Naftan
28 Aug
Vitebsk
2 : 0
Naftan
22 Aug
Naftan
0 : 2
Neman
15 Aug
FC Gomel
6 : 0
Naftan
07 Aug
Naftan
3 : 0
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 ML Vitebsk 18 11 6 1 36:15 39
2 Din. Minsk 18 12 3 3 35:15 39
3 Isloch Minsk 18 11 5 2 31:14 38
4 FC Gomel 20 9 6 5 28:15 33
5 Vitebsk 20 9 5 6 21:17 32
6 Dynamo Brest 20 9 4 7 32:21 31
7 Neman 19 9 3 7 21:17 30
8 FC Minsk 20 8 4 8 26:26 28
9 Zhodino 19 7 6 6 27:20 27
10 Slavia Mozyr 19 5 7 7 20:24 22
11 FK Baranovici 20 5 6 9 22:35 21
12 Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 20 5 6 9 22:35 21
13 BATE 18 3 8 7 14:20 17
14 Belshina 19 4 4 11 17:33 16
15 Dnepr Mogilev 20 2 9 9 16:29 15
16 Naftan 20 2 4 14 17:49 10
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Vysshaya Liga (Relegation)
Relegation - Pershaya Liga 2027 (Main)