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ML Vitebsk vs Smorgon Prediction & H2H Stats

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

ML Vitebsk in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 4-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored ML Vitebsk.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
ML Vitebsk
35%
Draws
28%
Smorgon
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: ML Vitebsk

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • ML Vitebsk have won more games recently than Smorgon.
  • Win probability leans ML Vitebsk's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and ML Vitebsk have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
ML Vitebsk Clean Sheet 20%
Smorgon Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric ML Vitebsk Smorgon
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 9
Draws 8 6
Losses 6 14
Goals Scored 1.97 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2026 Club Friendly
ML Vitebsk vs Smorgon
4:2
Aug 30, 2025 Vysshaya Liga
Smorgon vs ML Vitebsk
0:1
Apr 21, 2025 Vysshaya Liga
ML Vitebsk vs Smorgon
3:1
Oct 22, 2022 Pershaya Liga
ML Vitebsk vs Smorgon
3:1
Jul 3, 2022 Pershaya Liga
Smorgon vs ML Vitebsk
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

ML Vitebsk 67 / 100
Smorgon 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
ML Vitebsk Smorgon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ML Vitebsk Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.80 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: ML Vitebsk stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

ML Vitebsk scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Smorgon has conceded goals in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

ML Vitebsk VS Smorgon
1 Goals Scored 1.25
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

ML Vitebsk

(Home)
18 Sept
ML Vitebsk
5 : 1
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
13 Sept
Dnepr Mogilev
1 : 1
ML Vitebsk
06 Sept
ML Vitebsk
0 : 0
Din. Minsk
02 Sept
ML Vitebsk
1 : 1
Belshina
29 Aug
Dynamo Brest
1 : 3
ML Vitebsk
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Smorgon

(Away)
25 Sept
FK Lida
2 : 1
Smorgon
19 Sept
Smorgon
1 : 0
Niva Dolbizno
12 Sept
SKA-1938 Minsk
0 : 2
Smorgon
06 Sept
Smorgon
1 : 1
Slutsk
30 Aug
Din. Minsk 2
3 : 2
Smorgon
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