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ML Vitebsk vs Smorgon

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

ML Vitebsk in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 4-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored ML Vitebsk.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
ML Vitebsk
20%
Draws
38%
Smorgon
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: ML Vitebsk

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • ML Vitebsk have won more games recently than Smorgon.
  • Win probability leans ML Vitebsk's way, sitting at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and ML Vitebsk have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
ML Vitebsk Clean Sheet 10%
Smorgon Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric ML Vitebsk Smorgon
Matches Played 26 29
Wins 16 8
Draws 4 8
Losses 6 13
Goals Scored 2.13 2.25
Goals Conceded 1.88 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2026 Club Friendly
ML Vitebsk vs Smorgon
4:2
Aug 30, 2025 Vysshaya Liga
Smorgon vs ML Vitebsk
0:1
Apr 21, 2025 Vysshaya Liga
ML Vitebsk vs Smorgon
3:1
Oct 22, 2022 Pershaya Liga
ML Vitebsk vs Smorgon
3:1
Jul 3, 2022 Pershaya Liga
Smorgon vs ML Vitebsk
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

ML Vitebsk 40 / 100
Smorgon 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
ML Vitebsk Smorgon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

ML Vitebsk's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 26 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.80 goals when they meet.

Smorgon let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

ML Vitebsk has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

ML Vitebsk VS Smorgon
2.13 Goals Scored 2.25
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

ML Vitebsk

(Home)
15 Jul
Univ. Craiova
1 : 0
ML Vitebsk
08 Jul
ML Vitebsk
1 : 4
Univ. Craiova
01 Jul
Slavia Mozyr
2 : 4
ML Vitebsk
27 Jun
ML Vitebsk
2 : 1
Naftan
21 Jun
FC Minsk
2 : 2
ML Vitebsk
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Smorgon

(Away)
18 Jul
Smorgon
3 : 4
FC Minsk
11 Jul
Orsha
1 : 1
Smorgon
05 Jul
Smorgon
1 : 3
Volna Pinsk
27 Jun
Smorgon
2 : 0
Soligorsk
20 Jun
BumProm Gomel
2 : 1
Smorgon
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