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Modena vs Avellino - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie B Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Besaggio M.
19'
Sub
Favilli A. In: Cheddira W.
Out: Favilli A.
34'
Zampano F.

AI Match Summary

Avellino in this Serie B matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Avellino.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Modena
30%
Draws
31%
Avellino
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Modena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Avellino lately — more wins on the board than Modena.
  • Win probability leans Modena's way, sitting at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Modena Clean Sheet 19%
Avellino Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Modena Avellino
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 11 14
Draws 6 4
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.44 2.31
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Serie B
Modena vs Avellino
0:1
May 8, 2026 Serie B
Avellino vs Modena
1:0
Aug 31, 2025 Serie B
Modena vs Avellino
1:1
Jan 23, 2016 Serie B
Modena vs Avellino
1:1
Sep 12, 2015 Serie B
Avellino vs Modena
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Modena Compare

Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Avellino Compare

Top Goalscorer Besaggio M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Modena 42 / 100
Avellino 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Modena Avellino

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Modena scored in 74% of their last 27 outings.

Defensive concern: Avellino conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Modena remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Modena VS Avellino
1.88 Goals Scored 1.5
1 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Modena

(Home)
31 Oct
Modena
1 : 1
Mantova
27 Oct
Vicenza
1 : 2
Modena
24 Oct
Modena
3 : 0
Cesena
17 Oct
Carrarese
2 : 1
Modena
11 Oct
Modena
3 : 2
Verona
Page 1 of 6

Avellino

(Away)
01 Nov
Avellino
2 : 0
Pisa
27 Oct
Entella
1 : 1
Avellino
24 Oct
Avellino
0 : 1
Padova
18 Oct
Cesena
1 : 1
Avellino
09 Oct
Avellino
4 : 1
Sampdoria
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Palermo 10 8 2 0 24:12 26
2 Modena 10 6 2 2 18:10 20
3 Ascoli 10 5 4 1 16:6 19
4 Mantova 10 5 3 2 15:11 18
5 Avellino 10 4 3 3 15:10 15
6 Benevento 10 4 3 3 14:10 15
7 Verona 10 4 3 3 19:13 15
8 Pisa 10 4 3 3 18:15 15
9 Padova 10 4 2 4 10:11 14
10 Sudtirol 10 3 5 2 11:10 14
11 Cremonese 10 3 3 4 10:11 12
12 Cesena 10 2 6 2 11:14 12
13 Arezzo 10 3 2 5 9:19 11
14 Entella 10 2 4 4 11:12 10
15 Carrarese 10 3 1 6 9:13 10
16 Juve Stabia 10 3 4 3 11:11 9
17 Vicenza 10 2 3 5 13:20 9
18 Empoli 10 2 2 6 10:17 8
19 Sampdoria 10 2 2 6 10:18 8
20 Catanzaro 10 1 3 6 11:22 6
Promotion - Serie A 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B (Play Out)