Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Modena vs Mantova

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Sersanti A.
Assist: Gliozzi E.
31'
Zampano F.
46'
Sub
Sersanti A. In: Wiafe S.
Out: Sersanti A.

AI Match Summary

Modena in this Serie B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Modena.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Modena
44%
Draws
20%
Mantova
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Mantova lately — more wins on the board than Modena.
  • 44% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Serie B 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Modena Clean Sheet 10%
Mantova Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Modena Mantova
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 13
Draws 5 5
Losses 14 11
Goals Scored 1.25 2.63
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Serie B
Modena vs Mantova
2:1
Sep 20, 2025 Serie B
Mantova vs Modena
1:3
Feb 1, 2025 Serie B
Modena vs Mantova
3:1
Nov 30, 2024 Serie B
Mantova vs Modena
0:0
Mar 14, 2021 Serie C - Group B
Modena vs Mantova
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Modena Compare

Top Goalscorer Sersanti A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tonoli D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Mantova Compare

Top Goalscorer Mensah D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.39
Avg xA / game 1.46

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Modena 34 / 100
Mantova 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Modena Mantova

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAN Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Modena found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

Mantova let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Modena has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Modena VS Mantova
1.25 Goals Scored 2.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Modena

(Home)
01 Aug
Trento
0 : 1
Modena
28 Jul
Cagliari
1 : 0
Modena
25 Jul
Modena
5 : 0
Virtus Bolzano
12 May
Modena
0 : 1
Juve Stabia
08 May
Avellino
1 : 0
Modena
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Mantova

(Away)
30 Jul
Mantova
6 : 2
Alcione Milano
26 Jul
Mantova
7 : 0
Ambrosiana
08 May
Frosinone
5 : 0
Mantova
01 May
Mantova
3 : 2
Monza
25 Apr
Sudtirol
0 : 3
Mantova
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Venezia 38 24 10 4 77:31 82
2 Frosinone 38 23 12 3 76:34 81
3 Monza 38 22 10 6 61:32 76
4 Palermo 38 20 12 6 61:33 72
5 Catanzaro 38 15 14 9 62:51 59
6 Modena 38 15 10 13 49:36 55
7 Juve Stabia 38 11 18 9 44:45 51
8 Avellino 38 13 10 15 43:55 49
9 Mantova 38 13 7 18 45:57 46
10 Padova 38 12 10 16 39:49 46
11 Cesena 38 12 10 16 45:56 46
12 Carrarese 38 10 14 14 47:52 44
13 Sampdoria 38 11 11 16 35:48 44
14 Entella 38 10 12 16 36:51 42
15 Empoli 38 9 14 15 47:54 41
16 Sudtirol 38 8 17 13 38:48 41
17 Bari 38 10 10 18 38:60 40
18 Reggiana 38 9 10 19 36:56 37
19 Spezia 38 8 11 19 43:59 35
20 Pescara 38 7 14 17 51:66 35
Promotion - Serie A (Main)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Out)