Sport Picks

Brazil

Paulista A4 2021

Independente SP

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Mogi Mirim play Independente SP in the Paulista A4 2021. It looks like a close match. Recently, Mogi Mirim averaged 0.73 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. Independente SP averaged 1.95 goals scored and 1.22 conceded. In past meetings, Mogi Mirim won 1, Independente SP won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 30, 2026 ended 4:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Mogi Mirim and 1.94 for Independente SP. This points to a Independente SP double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%

Mogi Mirim

16%

Draws

55%

Independente SP

Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Independente SP

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

81% / High Confidence

Mogi Mirim picked up more points recently compared to Independente SP.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 1.94 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 72%

Over 2.5 Goals 38%

Over 3.5 Goals 23%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%

Mogi Mirim Clean Sheet 10%

Independente SP Clean Sheet 12%

First Half Goal 65%

Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Mogi Mirim	Independente SP
Matches Played	30	37
Wins	6	18
Draws	6	4
Losses	18	15
Goals Scored	0.73	1.95
Goals Conceded	1.33	1.22
Expected Goals (xG)	1.75	2.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.38	0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 30, 2026 Paulista B

Independente SP vs Mogi Mirim

Possession: 55% - 52% Cards: 3 - 1

4:1

Apr 25, 2026 Paulista B

Mogi Mirim vs Independente SP

Possession: 44% - 56% Cards: 4 - 1

0:1

Jun 18, 2023 Paulista A4

Mogi Mirim vs Independente SP

Possession: 45% - 48% Cards: 4 - 4

1:1

May 14, 2023 Paulista A4

Independente SP vs Mogi Mirim

Possession: 43% - 48% Cards: 3 - 3

0:2

Sep 22, 2021 Paulista A4

Mogi Mirim vs Independente SP

Possession: 60% - 46% Cards: 1 - 1

0:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mogi Mirim 28 / 100

Independente SP 52 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Mogi Mirim Independente SP

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Independente SP Win (2)

Secondary Pick Independente SP & Under 3.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +38%

4.76

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +18.9%

3.13

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Mogi Mirim attacking → ← attacking Independente SP

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mogi Mirim scored in 43% of their last 30 games.

Independente SP let in goals in 76% of their last 37 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Mogi Mirim went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Independente SP lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

24 Points in last 5 58

1.75 Goals expected (xG) 2.50

1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.63

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Matonense	10	7	2	1	13:5	23
2	Taquaritinga	10	5	2	3	15:8	17
3	Catanduva FC	10	4	3	3	12:11	15
4	Inter de Bebedouro	10	4	3	3	15:9	15
5	Fernandopolis	10	1	4	5	13:20	7
6	America SP	10	1	2	7	8:23	5

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	XV de Jau	10	7	2	1	12:7	23
2	Gremio Prudente	10	5	2	3	15:10	17
3	Vocem	10	4	4	2	10:7	16
4	Assisense	10	4	1	5	9:11	13
5	Santacruzense	10	2	3	5	7:8	9
6	Osvaldo Cruz	10	1	2	7	7:17	5

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rio Branco SP	10	7	2	1	18:8	23
2	Independente SP	10	5	3	2	12:9	18
3	Sao-Carlense	10	4	5	1	12:6	17
4	Sao Carlos	10	3	2	5	9:13	11
5	Itapirense	10	1	3	6	5:12	6
6	Mogi Mirim	10	1	3	6	3:11	6

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo SP	10	8	2	0	18:5	26
2	Paulista	10	5	3	2	18:7	18
3	Colorado Caieiras	10	3	3	4	12:13	12
4	Mauaense	10	3	2	5	14:22	11
5	Guarulhos	10	2	3	5	14:21	9
6	Barcelona SP	10	1	3	6	13:21	6

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Uniao Suzano	10	8	2	0	24:3	26
2	Maua FC	10	6	3	1	23:9	21
3	Uniao Mogi	10	4	1	5	15:10	13
4	ECUS SP	10	4	1	5	12:22	13
5	Manthiqueira	10	3	3	4	13:12	12
6	Atletico Mogi	10	0	0	10	6:37	0