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Mohammedan vs Arambagh - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Bangladesh Bangladesh

Federation Cup Rafiq Uddin Bhuiyan Stadium, Mymensingh
Mohammedan Logo

Mohammedan

3 - 1
FT
Arambagh Logo

Arambagh

Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Suraj R.
38' Event
Diabate S.
Penalty Missed
57' Event
Dewan S.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-1. The second leg ended 3-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
Mohammedan
20%
Draws
15%
Arambagh
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mohammedan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mohammedan come out ahead of Arambagh on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Mohammedan's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Mohammedan have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Mohammedan, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Mohammedan have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Mohammedan Clean Sheet 20%
Arambagh Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mohammedan Arambagh
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 13 4
Draws 7 7
Losses 8 18
Goals Scored 1.86 0.59
Goals Conceded 1.04 1.83
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 6, 2026 Federation Cup
Mohammedan vs Arambagh
3:1
May 9, 2026 BFL
Arambagh vs Mohammedan
0:2
Apr 21, 2026 Federation Cup
Mohammedan vs Arambagh
4:0
Dec 20, 2025 BFL
Mohammedan vs Arambagh
1:1
May 1, 2021 BFL
Mohammedan vs Arambagh
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mohammedan Compare

Top Goalscorer Dewan S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rana M. S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Arambagh Compare

Top Goalscorer Suraj R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mohammedan 85 / 100
Arambagh 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mohammedan Arambagh

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mohammedan Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arambagh's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.

Mohammedan's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Mohammedan went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mohammedan VS Arambagh
2.13 Goals Scored 0.5
1 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Mohammedan

(Home)
06 Oct
Mohammedan
3 : 1
Arambagh
02 Oct
Fakirerpool YMC
0 : 1
Mohammedan
23 May
Mohammedan
5 : 0
Brothers U.
20 May
Bashundara Kings
3 : 2
Mohammedan
15 May
Rahmatgonj MFS
1 : 0
Mohammedan
Page 1 of 6

Arambagh

(Away)
06 Oct
Mohammedan
3 : 1
Arambagh
03 Oct
Arambagh
2 : 2
Rahmatgonj MFS
19 Sept
Arambagh
1 : 1
Bashundara Kings
23 May
Arambagh
0 : 4
Abahani Limited Dhaka
15 May
Bangladesh Police
2 : 0
Arambagh
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Abahani Limited Dhaka 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
2 Fakirerpool YMC 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
3 Fortis 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
4 Chattogram 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
5 Brothers U. 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
6 Rahmatgonj MFS 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
Promotion - Federation Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bashundara Kings 1 1 0 0 5:0 3
2 Mohammedan 1 1 0 0 3:1 3
3 Bangladesh Police 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
4 City Club 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
5 PWD Sports Club 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
6 Arambagh 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
7 Dhaka Wanderers 1 0 0 1 0:5 0
Promotion - Federation Cup (Play Offs)