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Mohun Bagan vs East Bengal - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

India India

IFA Shield Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan, Kolkata
Our Tip

Match Events

44' Event
Zeljkovic S.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. This leg finished 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Mohun Bagan
20%
Draws
40%
East Bengal
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • East Bengal average 2.55 goals a game right now, well clear of Mohun Bagan's 2.18.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Mohun Bagan, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 34%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Mohun Bagan Clean Sheet 19%
East Bengal Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mohun Bagan East Bengal
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 18 18
Draws 8 8
Losses 2 3
Goals Scored 2.18 2.55
Goals Conceded 0.57 0.72
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.29
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 8, 2026 IFA Shield
Mohun Bagan vs East Bengal
1:0
Aug 23, 2026 Durand Cup
East Bengal vs Mohun Bagan
4:1
Jul 25, 2026 Durand Cup
East Bengal vs Mohun Bagan
0:1
May 17, 2026 ISL
Mohun Bagan vs East Bengal
1:1
Oct 31, 2025 Super Cup
Mohun Bagan vs East Bengal
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mohun Bagan Compare

Top Goalscorer Zeljkovic S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

East Bengal Compare

Avg xG / game 1.17
Avg xA / game 0.72

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mohun Bagan 32 / 100
East Bengal 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mohun Bagan East Bengal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mohun Bagan scored in 82% of their last 28 games.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Mohun Bagan has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

East Bengal's defensive record shows goals conceded in 55% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Mohun Bagan VS East Bengal
1.5 Goals Scored 1.75
0.83 Goals Conceded 0.38
50% Over 1.5 75%
33% Over 2.5 25%
33% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Mohun Bagan

(Home)
04 Oct
Mohun Bagan
1 : 0
Minerva Punjab
29 Sept
Mohun Bagan
1 : 1
North East United
23 Sept
Mohun Bagan
6 : 0
Sreenidi Deccan
23 Aug
East Bengal
4 : 1
Mohun Bagan
20 Aug
Mohun Bagan
1 : 0
North East United
Page 1 of 6

East Bengal

(Away)
05 Oct
East Bengal
7 : 2
North East United
30 Sept
East Bengal
0 : 1
Minerva Punjab
24 Sept
Calcutta Customs
1 : 3
East Bengal
19 Sept
Coal India
0 : 7
East Bengal
16 Sept
Al Hussein
2 : 2
East Bengal
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Mohun Bagan 1
Minerva Punjab 0
East Bengal 7
North East United 2
Final
Mohun Bagan 0
East Bengal 0