Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mohun Bagan vs East Bengal

India India

Super Cup Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium (Fatorda)
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Mohun Bagan play East Bengal in the Super Cup. It looks like a close match. Recently, Mohun Bagan averaged 1.8 goals scored and 0.66 conceded. East Bengal averaged 2.06 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. In past meetings, Mohun Bagan won 2, East Bengal won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 17, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for Mohun Bagan and 1.63 for East Bengal. This points to a Mohun Bagan double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Mohun Bagan
28%
Draws
33%
East Bengal
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Mohun Bagan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Mohun Bagan picked up more points recently compared to East Bengal.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 1.63 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 60%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 79%
Over 2.5 Goals 60%
Over 3.5 Goals 36%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%
Mohun Bagan Clean Sheet 14%
East Bengal Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 71%
Second Half Goal 75%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mohun Bagan East Bengal
Matches Played 35 36
Wins 22 20
Draws 8 8
Losses 5 8
Goals Scored 1.8 2.06
Goals Conceded 0.66 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 ISL
Mohun Bagan vs East Bengal
1:1
Oct 31, 2025 Super Cup
Mohun Bagan vs East Bengal
0:0
Oct 18, 2025 IFA Shield
East Bengal vs Mohun Bagan
1:2
Aug 17, 2025 Durand Cup
Mohun Bagan vs East Bengal
1:2
Jan 11, 2025 ISL
Mohun Bagan vs East Bengal
1:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mohun Bagan 38 / 100
East Bengal 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mohun Bagan East Bengal

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Mohun Bagan or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26%
3.23
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.85
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Mohun Bagan attacking → ← attacking East Bengal

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mohun Bagan scored in 79% of their last 34 games.

East Bengal let in goals in 67% of their last 36 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Mohun Bagan went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

East Bengal lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

74 Points in last 5 68
2.00 Goals expected (xG) 2.38
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1East Bengal31206:25
2Mohun Bagan31202:05
3Dempo30303:33
4Chennaiyin FC30121:71
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1FC Goa32016:26
2North East United31206:55
3Jamshedpur31114:44
4Inter Kashi30122:71
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Minerva Punjab22006:06
2Bengaluru FC22006:06
3Gokulam31023:73
4Mohammedan30030:80
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Mumbai City32015:26
2Kerala Blasters32014:16
3Rajasthan United31113:34
4SC Delhi30123:91