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Mohun Bagan vs Mumbai City

India India

ISL Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Mohun Bagan play Mumbai City in the ISL. It looks like a close match. Recently, Mohun Bagan averaged 1.77 goals scored and 0.71 conceded. Mumbai City averaged 1.25 goals scored and 0.81 conceded. In past meetings, Mohun Bagan won 1, Mumbai City won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Mar 20, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for Mohun Bagan and 0.88 for Mumbai City. This points to a Mohun Bagan double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Mohun Bagan
31%
Draws
31%
Mumbai City
Draw rate projection: 31% Favored: Mohun Bagan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Mohun Bagan picked up more points recently compared to Mumbai City.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 0.88 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 44%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 44%
Mohun Bagan Clean Sheet 25%
Mumbai City Clean Sheet 13%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 62%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mohun Bagan Mumbai City
Matches Played 35 32
Wins 21 15
Draws 9 9
Losses 5 8
Goals Scored 1.77 1.25
Goals Conceded 0.71 0.81
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 20, 2026 ISL
Mohun Bagan vs Mumbai City
0:1
Mar 1, 2025 ISL
Mumbai City vs Mohun Bagan
2:2
Sep 13, 2024 ISL
Mohun Bagan vs Mumbai City
2:2
May 4, 2024 ISL
Mohun Bagan vs Mumbai City
1:3
Apr 15, 2024 ISL
Mohun Bagan vs Mumbai City
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mohun Bagan Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Mumbai City Compare

Top Goalscorer Noufal P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mohun Bagan 39 / 100
Mumbai City 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mohun Bagan Mumbai City

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Mohun Bagan or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26.5%
3.33
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.7%
2.63
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Mohun Bagan attacking → ← attacking Mumbai City

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mohun Bagan scored in 79% of their last 34 games.

Mumbai City let in goals in 47% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Mohun Bagan went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Mumbai City lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

72 Points in last 5 54
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1East Bengal1375130:1126
2Mohun Bagan1375123:926
3Mumbai City1374217:925
4Bengaluru FC1365218:1223
5Jamshedpur1364315:1022
6Minerva Punjab1364318:1222
7FC Goa1355315:1120
8Kerala Blasters1352615:1717
9North East United1344516:2116
10Inter Kashi1334611:1713
11Odisha FC1325614:2211
12SC Delhi1325613:1711
13Chennaiyin FC132389:219
14Mohammedan1303107:323