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MOIK Baku vs Sabail - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa
Thu, Nov 19, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

MOIK Baku host Sabail in the I Liqa. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: MOIK Baku at 1.34 goals for, 1.52 against; Sabail at 1.55 for, 0.83 against. Past meetings favor Sabail slightly — 1-3-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 18, 2026, ending 2:2. The numbers (0.94 xG vs 1.75) point toward Sabail. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
MOIK Baku
30%
Draws
31%
Sabail
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: MOIK Baku

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Sabail carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 39% — that's where the model lands on MOIK Baku taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
MOIK Baku Clean Sheet 12%
Sabail Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric MOIK Baku Sabail
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 13
Draws 6 10
Losses 12 6
Goals Scored 1.34 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.52 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 18, 2026 I Liqa
Sabail vs MOIK Baku
2:2
Feb 18, 2026 I Liqa
MOIK Baku vs Sabail
1:0
Nov 5, 2025 I Liqa
Sabail vs MOIK Baku
1:0
Nov 22, 2022 Azerbaijan Cup
MOIK Baku vs Sabail
0:4
Feb 11, 2017 I Liqa
MOIK Baku vs Sabail
0:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

MOIK Baku 83 / 100
Sabail 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
MOIK Baku Sabail

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MOIK Baku Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

MOIK Baku's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: MOIK Baku stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Sabail's defensive record shows goals conceded in 45% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

MOIK Baku VS Sabail
1.13 Goals Scored 2.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

MOIK Baku

(Home)
09 Oct
MOIK Baku
3 : 0
Mingachevir
18 Sept
FC Khankendi
0 : 2
MOIK Baku
11 Sept
MOIK Baku
1 : 1
Shimal
03 Sept
MOIK Baku
0 : 1
Sahdag Qusar
21 May
MOIK Baku
4 : 0
Difai Agsu
Page 1 of 6

Sabail

(Away)
08 Oct
Sabail
1 : 1
Karvan
17 Sept
Baku Sporting
0 : 1
Sabail
10 Sept
Sabail
2 : 1
Mingachevir
03 Sept
FC Khankendi
1 : 1
Sabail
22 May
Mingachevir
4 : 1
Sabail
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sahdag Qusar 4 4 0 0 13:1 12
2 Gancabasar 4 4 0 0 9:2 12
3 Sabail 4 2 2 0 5:3 8
4 Karvan 4 2 1 1 7:3 7
5 MOIK Baku 4 2 1 1 6:2 7
6 Zaqatala PFK 4 1 1 2 5:11 4
7 FC Khankendi 4 0 2 2 3:6 2
8 Shimal 4 0 2 2 4:8 2
9 Mingachevir 4 0 1 3 3:10 1
10 Baku Sporting 4 0 0 4 0:9 0
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa (Relegation)