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MOIK Baku vs Shimal - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa
MOIK Baku Logo

MOIK Baku

1 - 1
FT
Shimal Logo

Shimal

Our Tip

Match Events

49' Event
Osmanov N.
66' Event
Mardanov Z.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The I Liqa game between MOIK Baku and Shimal finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
MOIK Baku
30%
Draws
23%
Shimal
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: MOIK Baku

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • MOIK Baku carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
MOIK Baku Clean Sheet 20%
Shimal Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric MOIK Baku Shimal
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 11 6
Draws 6 6
Losses 12 18
Goals Scored 1.34 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.52 2.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 11, 2026 I Liqa
MOIK Baku vs Shimal
1:1
May 6, 2026 I Liqa
Shimal vs MOIK Baku
1:1
Dec 10, 2025 I Liqa
MOIK Baku vs Shimal
2:0
Sep 19, 2025 I Liqa
Shimal vs MOIK Baku
1:1
Oct 29, 2024 Azerbaijan Cup
MOIK Baku vs Shimal
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

MOIK Baku Compare

Top Goalscorer Mardanov Z.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Shimal Compare

Top Goalscorer Osmanov N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

MOIK Baku 31 / 100
Shimal 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
MOIK Baku Shimal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MOIK Baku Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Shimal let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

MOIK Baku found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

MOIK Baku went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

MOIK Baku VS Shimal
1.13 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

MOIK Baku

(Home)
09 Oct
MOIK Baku
3 : 0
Mingachevir
18 Sept
FC Khankendi
0 : 2
MOIK Baku
11 Sept
MOIK Baku
1 : 1
Shimal
03 Sept
MOIK Baku
0 : 1
Sahdag Qusar
21 May
MOIK Baku
4 : 0
Difai Agsu
Page 1 of 6

Shimal

(Away)
09 Oct
Shimal
1 : 1
FC Khankendi
17 Sept
Shimal
1 : 4
Sahdag Qusar
11 Sept
MOIK Baku
1 : 1
Shimal
04 Sept
Shimal
1 : 2
Gancabasar
27 May
Shimal
2 : 1
Lokbatan
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sahdag Qusar 4 4 0 0 13:1 12
2 Gancabasar 4 4 0 0 9:2 12
3 Sabail 4 2 2 0 5:3 8
4 Karvan 4 2 1 1 7:3 7
5 MOIK Baku 4 2 1 1 6:2 7
6 Zaqatala PFK 4 1 1 2 5:11 4
7 FC Khankendi 4 0 2 2 3:6 2
8 Shimal 4 0 2 2 4:8 2
9 Mingachevir 4 0 1 3 3:10 1
10 Baku Sporting 4 0 0 4 0:9 0
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa (Relegation)