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Molde vs Aalesund - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Norway Norway

Eliteserien Aker Stadion, Molde
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Christensen M.
Assist: Charles U.
32'
Andresen M.
44' Event
Skotheim I.
Assist: Reed M.

AI Match Summary

The Eliteserien game between Molde and Aalesund finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aalesund.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Molde
15%
Draws
36%
Aalesund
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Molde

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Molde carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Molde are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81.4%
Molde Clean Sheet 10%
Aalesund Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Molde Aalesund
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 16 10
Draws 3 9
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 2.59 2.28
Goals Conceded 1.45 2.03
Expected Goals (xG) 3.31 2.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 Eliteserien
Molde vs Aalesund
1:2
Jul 11, 2026 Eliteserien
Aalesund vs Molde
2:2
Feb 27, 2026 Club Friendly
Molde vs Aalesund
4:1
Mar 10, 2024 Club Friendly
Molde vs Aalesund
0:0
May 16, 2023 Eliteserien
Aalesund vs Molde
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Molde Compare

Top Goalscorer Lonebu K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.55
Avg xA / game 1.66

Aalesund Compare

Top Goalscorer Christensen M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Skotheim I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.27
Avg xA / game 1.39

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Molde 83 / 100
Aalesund 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Molde Aalesund

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Molde Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Molde's goal record stands at 93% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Aalesund has conceded goals in 90% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Molde went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Molde VS Aalesund
4.25 Goals Scored 3.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.38
100% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 75%
75% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Molde

(Home)
04 Oct
Molde
3 : 0
Kristiansund
19 Sept
Molde
1 : 2
Aalesund
16 Sept
Trygg/Lade
0 : 5
Molde
13 Sept
Ham-Kam
1 : 5
Molde
06 Sept
Molde
2 : 0
KFUM Oslo
Page 1 of 6

Aalesund

(Away)
19 Sept
Molde
1 : 2
Aalesund
16 Sept
Forde
3 : 4
Aalesund
13 Sept
KFUM Oslo
2 : 1
Aalesund
04 Sept
Aalesund
2 : 0
Start
30 Aug
Viking
2 : 1
Aalesund
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Viking 21 16 2 3 54:20 50
2 Bodo/Glimt 21 16 2 3 53:19 50
3 Tromso 21 11 5 5 40:29 38
4 Molde 21 11 3 7 44:32 36
5 Rosenborg 21 10 3 8 39:30 33
6 Lillestrom 21 10 2 9 28:29 32
7 Brann 21 9 2 10 39:32 29
8 Fredrikstad 21 8 4 9 25:32 28
9 Sarpsborg 08 21 6 7 8 24:29 25
10 KFUM Oslo 21 7 4 10 25:35 25
11 Sandefjord 21 6 5 10 21:27 23
12 Valerenga 21 6 5 10 34:43 23
13 Ham-Kam 21 6 5 10 29:44 23
14 Aalesund 21 4 9 8 33:46 21
15 Kristiansund 21 5 4 12 21:40 19
16 Start 21 4 4 13 22:44 16
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen 2027 (Main)