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Moldova vs Kazakhstan - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
VS
05:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Moldova host Kazakhstan in the UEFA Nations League. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: Moldova at 1 goals for, 2.17 against; Kazakhstan at 0.87 for, 1.93 against. Head-to-head, Moldova have won 1 to Kazakhstan's 2, with 2 draws. They last met on Oct 2, 2026, ending 1:2. The numbers (0.88 xG vs 1.50) point toward Moldova. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Moldova
35%
Draws
19%
Kazakhstan
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Moldova

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Moldova come out ahead of Kazakhstan on wins alone.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Moldova taking it.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this UEFA Nations League fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Moldova Clean Sheet 16%
Kazakhstan Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Moldova Kazakhstan
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 5
Draws 7 6
Losses 16 19
Goals Scored 1 0.87
Goals Conceded 2.17 1.93
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 2, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Kazakhstan vs Moldova
1:2
Mar 29, 2022 UEFA Nations League
Kazakhstan vs Moldova
1:1
Mar 24, 2022 UEFA Nations League
Moldova vs Kazakhstan
1:2
Feb 21, 2019 Friendly International
Kazakhstan vs Moldova
1:0
Feb 18, 2015 Friendly International
Moldova vs Kazakhstan
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Moldova 36 / 100
Kazakhstan 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Moldova Kazakhstan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kazakhstan has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Moldova scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Solid form: Moldova remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Moldova VS Kazakhstan
0.88 Goals Scored 0.88
2.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 13%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Moldova

(Home)
06 Oct
Moldova
0 : 4
Slovakia
02 Oct
Kazakhstan
1 : 2
Moldova
29 Sept
Moldova
1 : 1
Faroe Islands
26 Sept
Slovakia
2 : 0
Moldova
09 Jun
Armenia
1 : 1
Moldova
Page 1 of 6

Kazakhstan

(Away)
06 Oct
Kazakhstan
2 : 2
Faroe Islands
02 Oct
Kazakhstan
1 : 2
Moldova
29 Sept
Slovakia
2 : 1
Kazakhstan
26 Sept
Faroe Islands
1 : 1
Kazakhstan
09 Jun
Hungary
3 : 1
Kazakhstan
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Albania 4 3 0 1 8:3 9
2 Belarus 4 2 1 1 5:2 7
3 Finland 4 2 1 1 9:2 7
4 San Marino 4 0 0 4 1:16 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Montenegro 4 3 1 0 7:4 10
2 Cyprus 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
3 Armenia 4 1 1 2 4:5 4
4 Latvia 4 0 1 3 2:6 1
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Slovakia 4 3 1 0 9:2 10
2 Faroe Islands 4 0 4 0 5:5 4
3 Moldova 4 1 1 2 3:8 4
4 Kazakhstan 4 0 2 2 5:7 2
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Iceland 4 2 2 0 7:1 8
2 Estonia 4 1 3 0 2:1 6
3 Bulgaria 4 1 1 2 3:5 4
4 Luxembourg 4 1 0 3 2:7 3
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)