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Monaco vs Toulouse - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

France France

Ligue 1 Stade Louis II, Monaco
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
06:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Monaco host Toulouse in the Ligue 1. This one's hard to separate. Toulouse have shipped 1.55 goals a game lately, while Monaco have conceded 1.5 and scored 1.97. Past meetings favor Monaco slightly — 2-1-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 25, 2026, ending 2:2. The numbers (1.81 xG vs 1.00) point toward Monaco. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Monaco
30%
Draws
19%
Toulouse
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Monaco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Monaco have won more games recently than Toulouse.
  • Win probability leans Monaco's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Monaco Clean Sheet 20%
Toulouse Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Monaco Toulouse
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 17 10
Draws 6 7
Losses 7 12
Goals Scored 1.97 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.55
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Monaco
2:2
Oct 25, 2025 Ligue 1
Monaco vs Toulouse
1:0
Mar 7, 2025 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Monaco
1:1
Dec 7, 2024 Ligue 1
Monaco vs Toulouse
2:0
Feb 18, 2024 Ligue 1
Monaco vs Toulouse
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Monaco 85 / 100
Toulouse 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Monaco Toulouse

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Monaco Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Monaco's goal record stands at 87% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Recent resilience: Monaco stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Toulouse has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Scoring Trends

Monaco VS Toulouse
2 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Monaco

(Home)
18 Sept
Monaco
2 : 1
Lens
12 Sept
Strasbourg
1 : 1
Monaco
04 Sept
PSG
1 : 2
Monaco
30 Aug
Monaco
2 : 0
Marseille
27 Aug
Monaco
4 : 1
Gornik Zabrze
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Toulouse

(Away)
19 Sept
Toulouse
3 : 2
Le Havre
12 Sept
Lorient
2 : 2
Toulouse
03 Sept
Toulouse
0 : 1
Lille
29 Aug
Brest
2 : 2
Toulouse
22 Aug
Toulouse
0 : 2
Lyon
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Monaco 5 4 1 0 8:3 13
2 Lyon 5 3 2 0 10:2 11
3 Paris FC 5 3 2 0 8:3 11
4 Lille 5 3 1 1 8:4 10
5 Rennes 5 3 1 1 8:9 10
6 PSG 5 2 2 1 8:7 8
7 Angers 5 2 1 2 6:5 7
8 Strasbourg 5 2 1 2 10:10 7
9 Le Mans 5 1 3 1 9:9 6
10 Auxerre 5 2 0 3 7:12 6
11 Brest 5 1 2 2 7:8 5
12 Lorient 5 1 2 2 5:6 5
13 Toulouse 5 1 2 2 7:9 5
14 Nice 5 1 2 2 3:6 5
15 Lens 5 1 1 3 9:9 4
16 Troyes 5 1 1 3 4:11 4
17 Marseille 5 1 0 4 7:8 3
18 Le Havre 5 0 2 3 4:7 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)