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Monaghan United vs St. Patricks

Ireland Ireland

FAI Cup 2012
Sun, Aug 26, 2012
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the FAI Cup 2012. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: Monaghan United at 1 goals for, 2 against; St. Patricks at 1.63 for, 1 against. Head-to-head, Monaghan United have won 0 to St. Patricks's 2, with 3 draws. They last met on Aug 31, 2012, ending 0:0. xG projections (0.92 - 1.24) back St. Patricks to edge this. AI prediction: Draw (X). Expect a competitive, tight affair.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Monaghan United
15%
Draws
48%
St. Patricks
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: St. Patricks

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • St. Patricks have won more games recently than Monaghan United.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Monaghan United taking it.
  • St. Patricks arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor St. Patricks, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Monaghan United Clean Sheet 19%
St. Patricks Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Monaghan United St. Patricks
Matches Played 12 30
Wins 4 15
Draws 1 7
Losses 7 8
Goals Scored 1 1.63
Goals Conceded 2 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 1.24
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 31, 2012 Premier Division
St. Patricks vs Monaghan United
0:0
Aug 26, 2012 FAI Cup
Monaghan United vs St. Patricks
0:0
Jun 1, 2012 Premier Division
Monaghan United vs St. Patricks
0:4
Mar 16, 2012 Premier Division
St. Patricks vs Monaghan United
1:1
Sep 7, 2009 FAI Cup
St. Patricks vs Monaghan United
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Monaghan United 42 / 100
St. Patricks 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Monaghan United St. Patricks

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Monaghan United found the back of the net in 64% of recent matches (11 games).

St. Patricks has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Monaghan United has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

H2H data points to 1.40 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

- VS St. Patricks
0 Goals Scored 1.38
0 Goals Conceded 0.63
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Monaghan United

(Home)
26 Aug
Monaghan United
:
St. Patricks
01 Jun
Monaghan United
0 : 4
St. Patricks
25 May
Sligo Rovers
1 : 3
Monaghan United
21 May
Monaghan United
0 : 0
Shamrock Rovers
18 May
Dundalk
1 : 2
Monaghan United
Page 1 of 3

St. Patricks

(Away)
05 Sept
St. Patricks
1 : 2
Bohemians
28 Aug
St. Patricks
0 : 2
Waterford
21 Aug
Drogheda
0 : 2
St. Patricks
16 Aug
St. Patricks
3 : 2
Shamrock Rovers
09 Aug
Shelbourne
1 : 2
St. Patricks
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Derry City -
TBD -
TBD -
Finn Harps -
Phoenix 4
Lucan Utd 3
TBD -
UC Dublin -
Waterford -
TBD -
TBD -
Everton AFC -
Salthill -
TBD -
TBD -
Mervue United -
Shamrock Rovers -
TBD -
TBD -
Limerick -
Athlone -
TBD -
TBD -
Cork City -
Cherry Orchard 2
Verona 0
TBD -
Longford -
Bray -
TBD -
TBD -
Shelbourne -
Dundalk -
TBD -
TBD -
St. Patricks CY -
Blarney Utd -
TBD -
College Corinthians 1
Malahide United 2
Avondale United 3
Sheriff YC 1
Clonmel Celtic 0
Kildrum Tigers 1
Drumkeen -
TBD -
TBD -
Bohemians -
Drogheda -
TBD -
Ballymun Utd 1
Mayfield Utd 2
Douglas Hall 2
Killester Donnycarney 1
TBD -
Wexford -
Monaghan United -
TBD -
TBD -
Sligo Rovers -
Crumlin Utd 1
Kilbarrack Utd 0
TBD -
St. Patricks -
1/16-finals
Derry City 4
Finn Harps 0
Phoenix 1
UC Dublin 3
Waterford 1
Everton AFC 0
Salthill 0
Mervue United 2
Shamrock Rovers 1
Limerick 0
Athlone 1
Cork City 6
Cherry Orchard 2
Longford 0
Bray 1
Shelbourne 2
Dundalk 1
St. Patricks CY 0
Blarney Utd 1
Malahide United 4
Avondale United 3
Kildrum Tigers 1
Drumkeen 0
Bohemians 5
Drogheda 6
Mayfield Utd 1
Douglas Hall 3
Wexford 4
Monaghan United 3
Sligo Rovers 1
Crumlin Utd 0
St. Patricks 3
1/8-finals
Derry City 1
UC Dublin 0
Waterford 0
Mervue United 4
Shamrock Rovers 2
Cork City 0
Cherry Orchard 2
Shelbourne 3
Dundalk 4
Malahide United 0
Avondale United 0
Bohemians 1
Drogheda 1
Wexford 0
Monaghan United -
St. Patricks -
Quarter-finals
Derry City 7
Mervue United 1
Shamrock Rovers 1
Shelbourne 2
Dundalk 1
Bohemians 0
Drogheda 1
St. Patricks 2
Semi-finals
Derry City 4
Shelbourne 1
Dundalk 0
St. Patricks 3
Final
Derry City 3
St. Patricks 2