Sport Picks
Moncarapachense vs Vitoria Setubal Prediction & H2H Stats
Portugal
Campeonato de Portugal - Promotion Group 2023/2024 
Match Events
14'
14'
Caleb
(Penalty)
60'
60'
Marouca J.
69'
69'
Soares F.
AI Match Summary
Vitoria Setubal in this Campeonato de Portugal - Promotion Group 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Vitoria Setubal.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
20%
40%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
40%
/ Low Confidence
- Vitoria Setubal have won more games recently than Moncarapachense.
- Model gives Moncarapachense a 40% chance of winning this.
- Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Promotion Group 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 87%
Over 1.5 Goals 77.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Moncarapachense Clean Sheet 68%
Vitoria Setubal Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Moncarapachense | Vitoria Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 33 | 30 |
| Wins | 9 | 15 |
| Draws | 10 | 6 |
| Losses | 14 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 0.85 | 1.5 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.97 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.34 | 1.68 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 25, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Promotion Group
Vitoria Setubal vs Moncarapachense
1:0
Apr 28, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Promotion Group
Moncarapachense vs Vitoria Setubal
1:2
Jan 21, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Moncarapachense vs Vitoria Setubal
0:1
Sep 3, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Vitoria Setubal vs Moncarapachense
1:2
Jan 28, 2023 Liga 3
Vitoria Setubal vs Moncarapachense
2:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Moncarapachense Compare
Top Goalscorer Soares F.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.67
Vitoria Setubal Compare
Top Goalscorer Marouca J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.53
Avg xA / game 0.93
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Moncarapachense 95 / 100
Vitoria Setubal 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Moncarapachense Vitoria Setubal
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Moncarapachense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 2.60 goals.
Solid form: Moncarapachense remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Attacking prowess: Moncarapachense scored in 55% of their last 33 outings.
Vitoria Setubal let in goals in 57% of their last 30 matches.
Scoring Trends
Moncarapachense VS Vitoria Setubal
0.88 Goals Scored 1.6
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.8
75% Over 1.5 80%
50% Over 2.5 60%
38% Over 3.5 60%
Recent Form & Match History
Moncarapachense
(Home) 18 Apr
O Elvas CAD
0 : 0 Moncarapachense
12 Apr
Moncarapachense
0 : 1 Juv. Evora
04 Apr
Louletano
1 : 0 Moncarapachense
22 Mar
Moncarapachense
2 : 0 Sintrense
15 Mar
Portimonense B
0 : 3 Moncarapachense
Page 1 of 7
12 Apr
Moncarapachense
0 : 1 Juv. Evora
22 Mar
Moncarapachense
2 : 0 Sintrense
08 Mar
Moncarapachense
1 : 0 Malveira
15 Feb
Moncarapachense
1 : 1 Industria
31 Jan
Moncarapachense
1 : 3 GD Alcochetense
Page 1 of 4
Vitoria Setubal
(Away) 20 Sept
Alcains
0 : 2 Vitoria Setubal
13 Sept
Vitoria Setubal
2 : 2 Juv. Evora
06 Sept
Lajense
0 : 1 Vitoria Setubal
23 Aug
Vitoria Setubal
1 : 3 Amora
16 Aug
Serpa
4 : 2 Vitoria Setubal
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Alcains
0 : 2 Vitoria Setubal
06 Sept
Lajense
0 : 1 Vitoria Setubal
16 Aug
Serpa
4 : 2 Vitoria Setubal
01 Jun
SC Lusitania
2 : 1 Vitoria Setubal
19 May
Santarem
0 : 0 Vitoria Setubal
Page 1 of 4
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amarante FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9:4 | 13 |
| 2 | Sao Joao de Ver | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10:9 | 10 |
| 3 | AD Limianos | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9:9 | 10 |
| 4 | Pevidem | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4:10 | 1 |
Promotion - Liga 3 2024/2025 (Main)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amarante FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9:4 | 13 |
| 2 | Sao Joao de Ver | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10:9 | 10 |
| 3 | AD Limianos | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9:9 | 10 |
| 4 | Pevidem | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4:10 | 1 |
Promotion - Liga 3 2024/2025 (Main)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amarante FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9:4 | 13 |
| 2 | Sao Joao de Ver | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10:9 | 10 |
| 3 | AD Limianos | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9:9 | 10 |
| 4 | Pevidem | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4:10 | 1 |
Promotion - Liga 3 2024/2025 (Main)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amarante FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9:4 | 13 |
| 2 | Sao Joao de Ver | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10:9 | 10 |
| 3 | AD Limianos | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9:9 | 10 |
| 4 | Pevidem | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4:10 | 1 |
Promotion - Liga 3 2024/2025 (Main)
League Standings (Group 5)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amarante FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9:4 | 13 |
| 2 | Sao Joao de Ver | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10:9 | 10 |
| 3 | AD Limianos | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9:9 | 10 |
| 4 | Pevidem | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4:10 | 1 |
Promotion - Liga 3 2024/2025 (Main)
League Standings (Group 6)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitoria Setubal | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9:5 | 13 |
| 2 | SC Lusitania | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10:6 | 13 |
| 3 | Santarem | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5:8 | 5 |
| 4 | Moncarapachense | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3:8 | 3 |
Promotion - Liga 3 2024/2025 (Main)
League Standings (Group 7)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitoria Setubal | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9:5 | 13 |
| 2 | SC Lusitania | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10:6 | 13 |
| 3 | Santarem | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5:8 | 5 |
| 4 | Moncarapachense | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3:8 | 3 |
Promotion - Liga 3 2024/2025 (Main)
League Standings (Group 8)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitoria Setubal | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9:5 | 13 |
| 2 | SC Lusitania | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10:6 | 13 |
| 3 | Santarem | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5:8 | 5 |
| 4 | Moncarapachense | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3:8 | 3 |
Promotion - Liga 3 2024/2025 (Main)
League Standings (Group 9)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitoria Setubal | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9:5 | 13 |
| 2 | SC Lusitania | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10:6 | 13 |
| 3 | Santarem | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5:8 | 5 |
| 4 | Moncarapachense | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3:8 | 3 |
Promotion - Liga 3 2024/2025 (Main)
League Standings (Group 10)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitoria Setubal | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9:5 | 13 |
| 2 | SC Lusitania | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10:6 | 13 |
| 3 | Santarem | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5:8 | 5 |
| 4 | Moncarapachense | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3:8 | 3 |
Promotion - Liga 3 2024/2025 (Main)
