Sport Picks

Luxembourg

BGL Ligue 2025/2026 Stade John Grun

Mondorf

1 - 0

Hesperange

Our Tip

Match Events

18'

Savane H.

29'

Bochu N.

31'

Stoltz L.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The BGL Ligue 2025/2026 game between Mondorf and Hesperange finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mondorf.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%

Mondorf

44%

Draws

20%

Hesperange

Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence

Look at the last few games and Mondorf come out ahead of Hesperange on wins alone.
44% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
Regular BGL Ligue 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
These two have met 5 times recently and Mondorf have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 13%

Over 4.5 Goals 6%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%

Mondorf Clean Sheet 20%

Hesperange Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Mondorf	Hesperange
Matches Played	30	31
Wins	17	10
Draws	3	4
Losses	10	17
Goals Scored	1.25	0.88
Goals Conceded	0.5	1.63
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.50	1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 BGL Ligue

Mondorf vs Hesperange

Possession: 58% - 57% Cards: 3 - 1

1:0

Dec 3, 2025 BGL Ligue

Hesperange vs Mondorf

Possession: 45% - 59% Cards: 1 - 3

1:2

May 11, 2025 BGL Ligue

Mondorf vs Hesperange

Possession: 42% - 56% Cards: 1 - 3

4:0

Dec 1, 2024 BGL Ligue

Hesperange vs Mondorf

Possession: 52% - 52% Cards: 4 - 2

0:3

Apr 14, 2024 BGL Ligue

Hesperange vs Mondorf

Possession: 50% - 43% Cards: 2 - 1

1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mondorf Compare

Top Goalscorer Fournier L.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

Hesperange Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8

Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mondorf 36 / 100

Hesperange 20 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Mondorf Hesperange

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick HES Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Mondorf scored in 87% of their last 30 outings.

Hesperange let in goals in 77% of their last 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Difficult form: Hesperange registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mondorf VS Hesperange

1.25 Goals Scored 0.88

0.5 Goals Conceded 1.63

50% Over 1.5 75%

25% Over 2.5 38%

13% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bissen	30	20	5	5	70:27	65
2	Differdange	30	19	8	3	63:22	65
3	Mondorf	30	19	3	8	51:24	60
4	UNA Strassen	30	17	7	6	57:26	58
5	Dudelange	30	17	7	6	59:38	58
6	Jeunesse Esch	30	10	10	10	35:34	40
7	Racing Luxembourg	30	11	7	12	48:50	40
8	Kaerjeng	30	11	5	14	43:48	38
9	Hostert	30	10	6	14	35:56	36
10	Victoria Rosport	30	10	5	15	33:50	35
11	Progres Niedercorn	30	9	7	14	44:47	34
12	Hesperange	30	9	5	16	31:46	32
13	Jeunesse Canach	30	9	4	17	29:44	31
14	FC Mamer	30	8	5	17	33:59	29
15	Union Titus Petange	30	6	7	17	26:49	25
16	FC Rodange 91	30	6	7	17	28:65	25