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Mondorf vs Hesperange

Luxembourg Luxembourg

BGL Ligue 2025/2026 Stade John Grun, Mondorf-les-Bains
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Match Events

18'
Savane H.
29'
Bochu N.
31'
Stoltz L.

AI Match Summary

The BGL Ligue 2025/2026 game between Mondorf and Hesperange finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mondorf.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Mondorf
15%
Draws
0%
Hesperange
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Mondorf

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mondorf come out ahead of Hesperange on wins alone.
  • 85% — that's where the model lands on Mondorf taking it.
  • Regular BGL Ligue 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Mondorf have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Mondorf Clean Sheet 20%
Hesperange Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mondorf Hesperange
Matches Played 34 33
Wins 22 7
Draws 4 4
Losses 8 22
Goals Scored 2.12 0.82
Goals Conceded 1.09 2.06
Expected Goals (xG) 2.81 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 BGL Ligue
Mondorf vs Hesperange
1:0
Dec 3, 2025 BGL Ligue
Hesperange vs Mondorf
1:2
May 11, 2025 BGL Ligue
Mondorf vs Hesperange
4:0
Dec 1, 2024 BGL Ligue
Hesperange vs Mondorf
0:3
Apr 14, 2024 BGL Ligue
Hesperange vs Mondorf
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mondorf Compare

Top Goalscorer Fournier L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.41

Hesperange Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mondorf 85 / 100
Hesperange 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mondorf Hesperange

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mondorf Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Mondorf scored in 94% of their last 34 outings.

Hesperange let in goals in 88% of their last 33 matches.

Away concern: Hesperange has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Mondorf VS Hesperange
2 Goals Scored 0.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 3.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Mondorf

(Home)
20 Sept
Kischpelt WIlwerwiltz
1 : 10
Mondorf
16 Sept
FC Residence Walferdange
2 : 1
Mondorf
13 Sept
Mondorf
1 : 2
UNA Strassen
06 Sept
Bissen
1 : 2
Mondorf
30 Aug
Mondorf
2 : 1
Progres Niedercorn
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Hesperange

(Away)
20 Sept
Echternach
2 : 1
Hesperange
16 Sept
Differdange
3 : 0
Hesperange
13 Sept
Hesperange
0 : 3
FC Residence Walferdange
06 Sept
Hesperange
0 : 3
Ettelbruck
30 Aug
Kaerjeng
6 : 0
Hesperange
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bissen 30 20 5 5 70:27 65
2 Differdange 30 19 8 3 63:22 65
3 Mondorf 30 19 3 8 51:24 60
4 UNA Strassen 30 17 7 6 57:26 58
5 Dudelange 30 17 7 6 59:38 58
6 Jeunesse Esch 30 10 10 10 35:34 40
7 Racing Luxembourg 30 11 7 12 48:50 40
8 Kaerjeng 30 11 5 14 43:48 38
9 Hostert 30 10 6 14 35:56 36
10 Victoria Rosport 30 10 5 15 33:50 35
11 Progres Niedercorn 30 9 7 14 44:47 34
12 Hesperange 30 9 5 16 31:46 32
13 Jeunesse Canach 30 9 4 17 29:44 31
14 FC Mamer 30 8 5 17 33:59 29
15 Union Titus Petange 30 6 7 17 26:49 25
16 FC Rodange 91 30 6 7 17 28:65 25
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - BGL Ligue 2025/2026 (Relegation)