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AI Match Summary
The Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 game between Montaneses and Celaya finished 5-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Montaneses.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
19%
30%
51%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Celaya
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Celaya carry the better recent record into this one.
- Celaya are the model's pick here, at 80%.
- Regular Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Celaya have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Montaneses Clean Sheet 12%
Celaya Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Montaneses | Celaya |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 13 | 16 |
| Draws | 3 | 6 |
| Losses | 13 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1.48 | 1.83 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.28 | 1.1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.69 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 20, 2026 Primera Premier
Celaya vs Montaneses
2:1
Mar 29, 2026 Liga Premier Serie A
Montaneses vs Celaya
5:1
Nov 16, 2025 Liga Premier Serie A
Celaya vs Montaneses
1:0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Montaneses 11 / 100
Celaya 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Montaneses Celaya
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Celaya Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 3.33 goals as a typical output.
Montaneses found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).
Celaya's defensive record shows goals conceded in 52% of 29 matches.
Montaneses went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Montaneses VS Celaya
1.75 Goals Scored 1.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Montaneses
(Home) 20 Sept
Celaya
2 : 1 Montaneses
13 Sept
Montaneses
1 : 3 Racing de Veracruz
06 Sept
Jaguares De Chiapas
2 : 3 Montaneses
30 Aug
Montaneses
1 : 1 Deportiva Venados
10 Apr
Heroes de Zaci
1 : 0 Montaneses
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Montaneses
1 : 3 Racing de Veracruz
30 Aug
Montaneses
1 : 1 Deportiva Venados
29 Mar
Montaneses
5 : 1 Celaya
15 Mar
Montaneses
1 : 3 Racing de Veracruz
01 Mar
Montaneses
0 : 0 Deportiva Venados
Page 1 of 3
Celaya
(Away) 20 Sept
Celaya
2 : 1 Montaneses
12 Sept
Chapulineros
1 : 1 Celaya
06 Sept
Celaya
2 : 0 Tapachula
29 Aug
Pioneros
0 : 3 Celaya
26 Apr
Cimarrones de Sonora
2 : 2 Celaya
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Chapulineros
1 : 1 Celaya
29 Aug
Pioneros
0 : 3 Celaya
26 Apr
Cimarrones de Sonora
2 : 2 Celaya
18 Apr
Leones Negros 2
1 : 2 Celaya
29 Mar
Montaneses
5 : 1 Celaya
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alacranes de Durango | 26 | 21 | 2 | 3 | 71:16 | 74 |
| 2 | Tigres de Alica | 26 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 46:25 | 56 |
| 3 | Cimarrones de Sonora | 26 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 46:19 | 54 |
| 4 | Leones Negros 2 | 26 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 42:26 | 53 |
| 5 | Tecos | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 49:34 | 49 |
| 6 | Tritones Vallarta | 26 | 15 | 1 | 10 | 32:27 | 46 |
| 7 | Mineros de Fresnillo | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 40:41 | 39 |
| 8 | Los Cabos United | 26 | 11 | 3 | 12 | 37:40 | 37 |
| 9 | Guerreros de Autlan | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 38:42 | 32 |
| 10 | UA Zacatecas | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 32:49 | 29 |
| 11 | Ensenada FC | 26 | 8 | 2 | 16 | 30:55 | 28 |
| 12 | Reboceros de La Piedad | 26 | 7 | 1 | 18 | 39:66 | 23 |
| 13 | Zapotlanejo | 26 | 6 | 1 | 19 | 39:73 | 21 |
| 14 | Colima FC | 26 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 24:52 | 17 |
Promotion - Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Apodaca | 26 | 21 | 2 | 3 | 47:19 | 66 |
| 2 | FC Santiago | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 43:21 | 51 |
| 3 | Zacatepec | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 29:15 | 45 |
| 4 | Halcones de Zapopan | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 44:27 | 44 |
| 5 | Calor De San Pedro | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 37:26 | 44 |
| 6 | Gavilanes de Matamoros | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 31:22 | 44 |
| 7 | Lobos ULMX | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 33:28 | 40 |
| 8 | Correcaminos 2 | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 27:25 | 36 |
| 9 | Chilpancingo | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 33:41 | 35 |
| 10 | Cordobes FC | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 29:30 | 30 |
| 11 | Zitacuaro | 26 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 22:31 | 28 |
| 12 | CS Canamy | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 33:53 | 26 |
| 13 | Ciervos | 26 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 20:50 | 18 |
| 14 | Atletico Hidalgo | 26 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 22:62 | 16 |
Promotion - Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing de Veracruz | 24 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 55:9 | 71 |
| 2 | Deportiva Venados | 24 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 61:25 | 52 |
| 3 | Tapachula | 24 | 13 | 0 | 11 | 51:35 | 44 |
| 4 | Celaya | 24 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 42:32 | 43 |
| 5 | Inter Playa Del Carmen | 24 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 35:28 | 42 |
| 6 | Montaneses | 24 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 35:28 | 38 |
| 7 | Pioneros | 24 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 35:35 | 35 |
| 8 | Jaguares De Chiapas | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 33:32 | 34 |
| 9 | Heroes de Zaci | 24 | 10 | 2 | 12 | 33:46 | 34 |
| 10 | Chapulineros | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 21:33 | 23 |
| 11 | Canoneros FC | 24 | 7 | 1 | 16 | 25:49 | 22 |
| 12 | Neza FC | 24 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 25:73 | 19 |
| 13 | Dragones Toluca | 24 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 21:47 | 17 |
Promotion - Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
