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Match Events
56'
56'
Reidiner Cairu
75'
75'
Paulo
77'
77'
Black L.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 1-1. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
6%
30%
64%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Gremio Prudente
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
64%
/ High Confidence
- Recent numbers put Monte Azul and Gremio Prudente close enough that form isn't the deciding factor here.
- Win probability leans Gremio Prudente's way, sitting at 90%.
- Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 55%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Monte Azul Clean Sheet 16%
Gremio Prudente Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Monte Azul | Gremio Prudente |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 8 | 8 |
| Draws | 10 | 13 |
| Losses | 12 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.27 | 1.07 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.27 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 11, 2026 Paulista A2
Gremio Prudente vs Monte Azul
0:0
Jul 16, 2025 Copa Paulista
Monte Azul vs Gremio Prudente
1:1
Jun 14, 2025 Copa Paulista
Gremio Prudente vs Monte Azul
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Monte Azul Compare
Top Goalscorer Reidiner Cairu
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.98
Avg xA / game 0.64
Gremio Prudente Compare
Top Goalscorer Kesley
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Monte Azul 10 / 100
Gremio Prudente 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Monte Azul Gremio Prudente
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Gremio Prudente Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Monte Azul scored in 70% of their last 30 games.
Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.
Gremio Prudente has conceded goals in 57% of their last 30 outings.
Recent resilience: Monte Azul stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Monte Azul VS Gremio Prudente
0.8 Goals Scored 0.88
2 Goals Conceded 1.75
60% Over 1.5 50%
40% Over 2.5 25%
40% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Monte Azul
(Home) 07 Mar
Ituano
3 : 3 Monte Azul
04 Mar
Monte Azul
0 : 2 Sertaozinho
01 Mar
Monte Azul
0 : 1 Agua Santa
25 Feb
Monte Azul
1 : 3 Juventus-SP
22 Feb
Ferroviaria
1 : 0 Monte Azul
Page 1 of 6
04 Mar
Monte Azul
0 : 2 Sertaozinho
01 Mar
Monte Azul
0 : 1 Agua Santa
25 Feb
Monte Azul
1 : 3 Juventus-SP
18 Feb
Monte Azul
1 : 1 Osasco Sporting
28 Jan
Monte Azul
2 : 3 Votuporanguense
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Gremio Prudente
(Away) 26 Sept
Gremio Prudente
0 : 0 Uniao Sao Joao
20 Sept
Linense
1 : 2 Gremio Prudente
15 Sept
Gremio Prudente
2 : 2 Linense
07 Sept
Paulista
2 : 3 Gremio Prudente
31 Aug
Gremio Prudente
4 : 0 Paulista
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Linense
1 : 2 Gremio Prudente
07 Sept
Paulista
2 : 3 Gremio Prudente
14 Aug
Bandeirante
1 : 0 Gremio Prudente
09 Aug
Linense
5 : 2 Gremio Prudente
17 Jul
Marilia
1 : 0 Gremio Prudente
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League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gremio Prudente | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 12:6 | 16 |
| 2 | Monte Azul | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8:7 | 14 |
| 3 | Noroeste | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7:7 | 11 |
| 4 | AEA Aracatuba | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:9 | 8 |
| 5 | Linense | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5:11 | 5 |
Promotion - Copa Paulista 2025 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uniao Sao Joao | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 15:10 | 19 |
| 2 | Comercial | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13:9 | 17 |
| 3 | Internacional de Limeira | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 4 | Francana | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 8:8 | 14 |
| 5 | Botafogo SP B | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8:12 | 9 |
| 6 | Itapirense | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11:20 | 7 |
Promotion - Copa Paulista 2025 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Piracicaba | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 13:4 | 24 |
| 2 | Primavera EC | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 15:9 | 19 |
| 3 | Paulista | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 10:10 | 13 |
| 4 | Sao Bento | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 12:14 | 11 |
| 5 | Guarani B | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10:16 | 8 |
| 6 | Rio Branco SP | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 6:13 | 5 |
Promotion - Copa Paulista 2025 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sao Jose EC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 19:7 | 20 |
| 2 | Portuguesa Santista | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 11:8 | 15 |
| 3 | Osasco Sporting | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 8:10 | 14 |
| 4 | Sao Caetano | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 8:11 | 13 |
| 5 | Taubate | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 9:10 | 10 |
| 6 | Santo Andre | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4:13 | 8 |
Promotion - Copa Paulista 2025 (Play Offs)
