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Montecasillas vs Bullense Prediction & H2H Stats

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Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Toure K. I.
29' Event
Toure K. I.
37' Event
William M.

AI Match Summary

Bullense in this Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 1-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Bullense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Montecasillas
30%
Draws
35%
Bullense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Bullense have won more games recently than Montecasillas.
  • Win probability leans Bullense's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Montecasillas Clean Sheet 22%
Bullense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montecasillas Bullense
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 7 8
Draws 2 8
Losses 21 16
Goals Scored 0.93 1.03
Goals Conceded 2.57 1.69
Expected Goals (xG) 1.42 1.05
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 30, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Montecasillas vs Bullense
1:4
Nov 12, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Bullense vs Montecasillas
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montecasillas Compare

Top Goalscorer Antonio J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.09
Avg xA / game 0.71

Bullense Compare

Top Goalscorer Toure K. I.
2 Goals
Assists Leader William M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.58

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montecasillas 24 / 100
Bullense 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montecasillas Bullense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bullense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Montecasillas's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Bullense conceded in 75% of 32 recent games.

Recent resilience: Montecasillas stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Bullense
0 Goals Scored 1
0 Goals Conceded 1.63
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Montecasillas

(Home)
12 May
Ciudad de Murcia
0 : 1
Montecasillas
04 May
Montecasillas
1 : 3
Molinense
01 May
Caravaca
8 : 0
Montecasillas
27 Apr
Montecasillas
1 : 7
Lorca Deportiva
21 Apr
UCAM Murcia B
1 : 0
Montecasillas
Page 1 of 6

Bullense

(Away)
11 May
Lorca Deportiva
2 : 1
Bullense
04 May
Bullense
0 : 5
Santomera
26 Apr
UCAM Murcia B
1 : 1
Bullense
19 Apr
Bullense
1 : 1
Real Murcia B
13 Apr
FC Cartagena SAD B
0 : 0
Bullense
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Deportiva Minera 34 24 6 4 53:19 78
2 Real Murcia B 34 20 8 6 67:33 68
3 Ciudad Cieza 34 19 11 4 44:24 68
4 UCAM Murcia B 34 19 5 10 42:24 62
5 Caravaca 34 18 7 9 60:32 61
6 Lorca Deportiva 34 17 8 9 64:30 59
7 Molinense 34 18 5 11 60:34 59
8 CA Pulpileno 34 13 13 8 39:23 52
9 Muleno CF 34 12 7 15 37:42 43
10 Racing Murcia 34 11 7 16 36:51 40
11 Plus Ultra 34 12 2 20 43:56 38
12 E.G. El Palmar 34 9 9 16 33:52 36
13 Bullense 34 10 6 18 40:65 36
14 Balsicas Atletico 34 9 9 16 35:53 36
15 Alcantarilla 34 10 6 18 34:41 36
16 Ciudad de Murcia 34 7 9 18 28:43 30
17 CD Algar 34 7 8 19 31:65 29
18 Montecasillas 34 7 2 25 31:90 23
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024 (Play Offs)