Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Montecchio Gallo vs Foligno

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F
Sun, Sep 27, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Montecchio Gallo host Foligno in the Serie D - Group F. This shapes up as a tight, low-scoring affair. Recent numbers: Montecchio Gallo at 1 goals for, 0.75 against; Foligno at 1.2 for, 1.1 against. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. Model xG sits at 0.96 vs 0.68, favoring Montecchio Gallo. The model tips Under 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Montecchio Gallo
15%
Draws
49%
Foligno
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Foligno

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Foligno lately — more wins on the board than Montecchio Gallo.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Montecchio Gallo taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 29%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Montecchio Gallo Clean Sheet 20%
Foligno Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montecchio Gallo Foligno
Matches Played 4 30
Wins 2 13
Draws 1 7
Losses 1 10
Goals Scored 1 1.2
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.96 0.68
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montecchio Gallo 42 / 100
Foligno 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montecchio Gallo Foligno

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montecchio Gallo scored in 75% of their last 4 games.

Foligno let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Montecchio Gallo has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Difficult form: Foligno registered 1 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Montecchio Gallo VS Foligno
0.8 Goals Scored 0.75
0.6 Goals Conceded 1.13
40% Over 1.5 63%
40% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Montecchio Gallo

(Home)
20 Sept
Recanatese
0 : 0
Montecchio Gallo
16 Sept
Montecchio Gallo
2 : 1
Pietralunga
12 Sept
Ancona
0 : 1
Montecchio Gallo
06 Sept
Montecchio Gallo
1 : 2
Santegidiese

Foligno

(Away)
20 Sept
Foligno
1 : 0
Notaresco Calcio
16 Sept
Recanatese
4 : 1
Foligno
12 Sept
Pietralunga
0 : 1
Foligno
06 Sept
Foligno
2 : 1
Lanciano FC
03 May
Foligno
1 : 0
Cannara
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vigor Senigallia 4 4 0 0 10:4 12
2 Teramo 4 3 1 0 11:5 10
3 Foligno 4 3 0 1 5:5 9
4 Aquila Calcio 4 2 2 0 7:2 8
5 Ancona 4 2 1 1 5:4 7
6 Santegidiese 4 2 1 1 4:3 7
7 Atletico Ascoli 4 2 1 1 4:3 7
8 Montecchio Gallo 4 2 1 1 4:3 7
9 Recanatese 4 1 3 0 5:2 6
10 Fossombrone 4 2 0 2 5:9 6
11 Lanciano FC 4 1 1 2 6:6 4
12 Notaresco Calcio 4 1 1 2 4:5 4
13 Termoli 4 1 1 2 2:3 4
14 Maceratese 4 1 0 3 3:6 3
15 Angelana 4 1 0 3 3:6 3
16 Giulianova 4 0 1 3 3:6 1
17 Pietralunga 4 0 1 3 1:5 1
18 Sporting Trestina 4 0 1 3 2:7 1
Promotion - Serie D - Group F (Play Offs)