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Montecchio Gallo vs Santegidiese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Mariani E.
66' Event
Eusepi U.
(Penalty)
77' Event
Scimia L.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group F game between Montecchio Gallo and Santegidiese finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Santegidiese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Montecchio Gallo
22%
Draws
35%
Santegidiese
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Montecchio Gallo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

22% / Low Confidence
  • Montecchio Gallo's 1 goals per match outpaces what Santegidiese have produced (0.8).
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Montecchio Gallo taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Montecchio Gallo Clean Sheet 20%
Santegidiese Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montecchio Gallo Santegidiese
Matches Played 4 5
Wins 2 2
Draws 1 1
Losses 1 2
Goals Scored 1 0.8
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.8
Expected Goals (xG) 0.98 0.53
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Montecchio Gallo vs Santegidiese
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montecchio Gallo Compare

Top Goalscorer Mariani E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.49

Santegidiese Compare

Top Goalscorer Scimia L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.29

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montecchio Gallo 42 / 100
Santegidiese 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montecchio Gallo Santegidiese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santegidiese's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 5 matches.

Montecchio Gallo's goal record stands at 75% scoring rate across 4 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Montecchio Gallo remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Montecchio Gallo VS Santegidiese
0.67 Goals Scored 0.57
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.29
33% Over 1.5 43%
33% Over 2.5 29%
0% Over 3.5 14%

Recent Form & Match History

Montecchio Gallo

(Home)
20 Sept
Recanatese
0 : 0
Montecchio Gallo
16 Sept
Montecchio Gallo
2 : 1
Pietralunga
12 Sept
Ancona
0 : 1
Montecchio Gallo
06 Sept
Montecchio Gallo
1 : 2
Santegidiese

Santegidiese

(Away)
20 Sept
Santegidiese
1 : 0
Angelana
16 Sept
Notaresco Calcio
1 : 0
Santegidiese
12 Sept
Santegidiese
1 : 1
Recanatese
06 Sept
Montecchio Gallo
1 : 2
Santegidiese
08 Aug
Alessandria
6 : 0
Santegidiese

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vigor Senigallia 4 4 0 0 10:4 12
2 Teramo 4 3 1 0 11:5 10
3 Foligno 4 3 0 1 5:5 9
4 Aquila Calcio 4 2 2 0 7:2 8
5 Ancona 4 2 1 1 5:4 7
6 Santegidiese 4 2 1 1 4:3 7
7 Atletico Ascoli 4 2 1 1 4:3 7
8 Montecchio Gallo 4 2 1 1 4:3 7
9 Recanatese 4 1 3 0 5:2 6
10 Fossombrone 4 2 0 2 5:9 6
11 Lanciano FC 4 1 1 2 6:6 4
12 Notaresco Calcio 4 1 1 2 4:5 4
13 Termoli 4 1 1 2 2:3 4
14 Maceratese 4 1 0 3 3:6 3
15 Angelana 4 1 0 3 3:6 3
16 Giulianova 4 0 1 3 3:6 1
17 Pietralunga 4 0 1 3 1:5 1
18 Sporting Trestina 4 0 1 3 2:7 1
Promotion - Serie D - Group F (Play Offs)