Sport Picks
Montedio Yamagata vs Matsumoto Yamaga
Japan
J2/J3 League ND Soft Stadium Yamagata, Tendo 
Match Events
61'
61'
Sub
Sawazaki R. In: Inoue A.
Out: Sawazaki R.
61'
61'
Sub
Kato T. In: Fujieda K.
Out: Kato T.
64'
64'
Terayama T.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 1-2, with Matsumoto Yamaga advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
39%
30%
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
65%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Montedio Yamagata come out ahead of Matsumoto Yamaga on wins alone.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- Montedio Yamagata have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Matsumoto Yamaga, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.2%
Montedio Yamagata Clean Sheet 15%
Matsumoto Yamaga Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Montedio Yamagata | Matsumoto Yamaga |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 14 | 12 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 13 | 17 |
| Goals Scored | 1.25 | 1.38 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.75 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.25 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.75 | 1.38 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 31, 2026 J2/J3 League
Montedio Yamagata vs Matsumoto Yamaga
1:2
Jul 11, 2021 J2 League
Montedio Yamagata vs Matsumoto Yamaga
1:0
Mar 14, 2021 J2 League
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Montedio Yamagata
1:1
Oct 4, 2020 J2 League
Montedio Yamagata vs Matsumoto Yamaga
1:3
Sep 5, 2020 J2 League
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Montedio Yamagata
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Montedio Yamagata Compare
Top Goalscorer Takahashi J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63
Matsumoto Yamaga Compare
Top Goalscorer Inoue A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Murakoshi K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Montedio Yamagata 31 / 100
Matsumoto Yamaga 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Montedio Yamagata Matsumoto Yamaga
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick MAT Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Montedio Yamagata scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.
Defensive concern: Matsumoto Yamaga conceded in 83% of 30 recent games.
H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.
Recent resilience: Montedio Yamagata stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Montedio Yamagata VS Matsumoto Yamaga
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Montedio Yamagata
(Home) 25 Jul
Albirex Niigata
3 : 4 Montedio Yamagata
07 Jun
Oita Trinita
1 : 0 Montedio Yamagata
31 May
Montedio Yamagata
1 : 2 Matsumoto Yamaga
24 May
Montedio Yamagata
3 : 1 Shonan Bellmare
16 May
Tochigi City
3 : 0 Montedio Yamagata
Page 1 of 6
31 May
Montedio Yamagata
1 : 2 Matsumoto Yamaga
24 May
Montedio Yamagata
3 : 1 Shonan Bellmare
10 May
Montedio Yamagata
2 : 3 SC Sagamihara
06 May
Montedio Yamagata
1 : 2 Thespakusatsu Gunma
03 May
Montedio Yamagata
3 : 2 Tochigi SC
Page 1 of 3
Matsumoto Yamaga
(Away) 25 Jul
Matsumoto Yamaga
3 : 0 Kofu
06 Jun
Matsumoto Yamaga
0 : 2 Nara Club
31 May
Montedio Yamagata
1 : 2 Matsumoto Yamaga
24 May
Matsumoto Yamaga
3 : 4 Fukushima United
17 May
Iwaki
1 : 2 Matsumoto Yamaga
Page 1 of 6
31 May
Montedio Yamagata
1 : 2 Matsumoto Yamaga
17 May
Iwaki
1 : 2 Matsumoto Yamaga
06 May
Gifu
0 : 3 Matsumoto Yamaga
18 Apr
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
2 : 1 Matsumoto Yamaga
29 Mar
Fukushima United
1 : 3 Matsumoto Yamaga
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
Semi-finals
Blaublitz2
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo1
Albirex Niigata0
Kagoshima United1
Thespakusatsu Gunma0
Gifu1
Kanazawa1
Gainare Tottori3
Kamatamare Sanuki3
Giravanz Kitakyushu1
Tochigi SC0
Nagano Parceiro1
Tokushima3
Sagan Tosu1
Shonan Bellmare1
Iwaki2
Yokohama FC2
Omiya Ardija1
Kochi United2
Renofa Yamaguchi3
Montedio Yamagata1
Matsumoto Yamaga2
Nara Club4
Oita Trinita3
SC Sagamihara4
Fujieda MYFC3
Ehime0
Kumamoto1
Vanraure0
Fukushima United1
Imabari1
Ryukyu2
Tochigi City4
Iwata3
FC Osaka0
Reilac Shiga1
Final
Blaublitz0
Kagoshima United2
Gifu1
Gainare Tottori2
Kamatamare Sanuki0
Nagano Parceiro1
Tokushima2
Iwaki0
Yokohama FC2
Renofa Yamaguchi1
Matsumoto Yamaga0
Nara Club2
SC Sagamihara3
Kumamoto0
Fukushima United2
Ryukyu1
Tochigi City3
Reilac Shiga1