Sport Picks
Montedio Yamagata vs Sagan Tosu
Japan
J2 League ND Soft Stadium Yamagata, Tendo 
Match Events
11'
11'
Takahashi J.
44'
44'
Kida R.
Assist: Doi S.
46'
46'
Sub
Nakahara H. In: Izawa R.
Out: Nakahara H.
AI Match Summary
Montedio Yamagata in this J2 League matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Montedio Yamagata.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
57%
15%
28%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Montedio Yamagata
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
57%
/ Medium Confidence
- Montedio Yamagata haven't matched Sagan Tosu's recent run of results.
- 57% — that's where the model lands on Montedio Yamagata taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Montedio Yamagata Clean Sheet 68%
Sagan Tosu Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Montedio Yamagata | Sagan Tosu |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 16 |
| Draws | 0 | 2 |
| Losses | 18 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.24 | 1.59 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.41 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 26, 2026 J2 League
Montedio Yamagata vs Sagan Tosu
2:0
Aug 30, 2025 J2 League
Montedio Yamagata vs Sagan Tosu
3:2
Apr 25, 2025 J2 League
Sagan Tosu vs Montedio Yamagata
2:1
Nov 14, 2015 Emperors Cup
Sagan Tosu vs Montedio Yamagata
4:3
Aug 16, 2015 J1 League
Montedio Yamagata vs Sagan Tosu
1:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Montedio Yamagata Compare
Top Goalscorer Takahashi J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Kida R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
Sagan Tosu Compare
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Montedio Yamagata 68 / 100
Sagan Tosu 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Montedio Yamagata Sagan Tosu
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Montedio Yamagata Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Historical meetings average 4.20 goals per match.
Montedio Yamagata found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).
Sagan Tosu lost 4 of their last 5 games.
Sagan Tosu has conceded goals in 55% of their last 29 outings.
Scoring Trends
Montedio Yamagata VS Sagan Tosu
1.5 Goals Scored 1.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Montedio Yamagata
(Home) 29 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
1 : 2 Yokohama F. Marinos
26 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
2 : 0 Sagan Tosu
19 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
0 : 2 Toyama
13 Sept
Albirex Niigata
1 : 0 Montedio Yamagata
09 Sept
Tochigi SC
0 : 1 Montedio Yamagata
Page 1 of 6
29 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
1 : 2 Yokohama F. Marinos
26 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
2 : 0 Sagan Tosu
19 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
0 : 2 Toyama
05 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
1 : 2 Kofu
26 Aug
Montedio Yamagata
3 : 5 Fujieda MYFC
Page 1 of 4
Sagan Tosu
(Away) 29 Sept
Sagan Tosu
2 : 1 Verdy
26 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
2 : 0 Sagan Tosu
23 Sept
Vissel Kobe
1 : 0 Sagan Tosu
19 Sept
Sagan Tosu
1 : 3 Iwaki
12 Sept
Imabari
1 : 0 Sagan Tosu
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
2 : 0 Sagan Tosu
23 Sept
Vissel Kobe
1 : 0 Sagan Tosu
12 Sept
Imabari
1 : 0 Sagan Tosu
02 Sept
Nara Club
1 : 2 Sagan Tosu
29 Aug
Yokohama FC
2 : 2 Sagan Tosu
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17:8 | 20 |
| 2 | Albirex Niigata | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 13:13 | 19 |
| 3 | Toyama | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 18:9 | 17 |
| 4 | Omiya Ardija | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 17:8 | 17 |
| 5 | Yokohama FC | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 18:11 | 17 |
| 6 | Shonan Bellmare | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 10:8 | 16 |
| 7 | Fujieda MYFC | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13:10 | 13 |
| 8 | Blaublitz | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 12:10 | 13 |
| 9 | Tokushima | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 9:10 | 13 |
| 10 | Montedio Yamagata | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 11:8 | 12 |
| 11 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13:13 | 12 |
| 12 | Oita Trinita | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 9:7 | 11 |
| 13 | Tochigi City | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15:15 | 10 |
| 14 | Iwata | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11:13 | 10 |
| 15 | Vanraure | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 5:14 | 10 |
| 16 | Iwaki | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12:17 | 9 |
| 17 | Sagan Tosu | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8:12 | 8 |
| 18 | Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 12:18 | 8 |
| 19 | Imabari | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9:18 | 7 |
| 20 | Kofu | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7:17 | 7 |
Promotion - J1 League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - J2 League (Promotion)
Relegation - J3 League 2027/2028 (Main)
