Sport Picks
Montedio Yamagata vs Toyama - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Japan
J2 League ND Soft Stadium Yamagata, Tendo 
Match Events
12'
12'
Kang Min-Woo
51'
51'
Sub
Furukawa M. In: Kim T.
Out: Furukawa M.
57'
57'
Kawai A.
Own Goal
AI Match Summary
Toyama in this J2 League matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Toyama.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
22%
20%
58%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Toyama
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
58%
/ Medium Confidence
- Montedio Yamagata haven't matched Toyama's recent run of results.
- 58% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Montedio Yamagata Clean Sheet 18%
Toyama Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Montedio Yamagata | Toyama |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 11 | 17 |
| Draws | 0 | 2 |
| Losses | 18 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.28 | 1.93 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.45 | 1.43 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 19, 2026 J2 League
Montedio Yamagata vs Toyama
0:2
Sep 14, 2025 J2 League
Montedio Yamagata vs Toyama
3:0
Apr 29, 2025 J2 League
Toyama vs Montedio Yamagata
0:0
Mar 13, 2024 J.League Cup
Toyama vs Montedio Yamagata
2:1
Aug 10, 2014 J2 League
Toyama vs Montedio Yamagata
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Montedio Yamagata Compare
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
Toyama Compare
Top Goalscorer Yunomae M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Montedio Yamagata 32 / 100
Toyama 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Montedio Yamagata Toyama
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Toyama Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Montedio Yamagata found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).
Toyama let in goals in 64% of their last 28 matches.
H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.
Montedio Yamagata has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Montedio Yamagata VS Toyama
1.13 Goals Scored 1.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Montedio Yamagata
(Home) 03 Oct
Oita Trinita
2 : 1 Montedio Yamagata
29 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
1 : 2 Yokohama F. Marinos
26 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
2 : 0 Sagan Tosu
19 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
0 : 2 Toyama
13 Sept
Albirex Niigata
1 : 0 Montedio Yamagata
Page 1 of 6
29 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
1 : 2 Yokohama F. Marinos
26 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
2 : 0 Sagan Tosu
19 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
0 : 2 Toyama
05 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
1 : 2 Kofu
26 Aug
Montedio Yamagata
3 : 5 Fujieda MYFC
Page 1 of 4
Toyama
(Away) 03 Oct
Kofu
1 : 2 Toyama
29 Sept
Toyama
2 : 3 Urawa Reds
26 Sept
Toyama
3 : 3 Yokohama FC
19 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
0 : 2 Toyama
12 Sept
Toyama
0 : 0 Tochigi City
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Kofu
1 : 2 Toyama
19 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
0 : 2 Toyama
06 Sept
Iwata
0 : 1 Toyama
02 Sept
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
1 : 2 Toyama
26 Aug
Sagan Tosu
4 : 0 Toyama
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Omiya Ardija | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 20:9 | 20 |
| 2 | Vegalta Sendai | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17:8 | 20 |
| 3 | Albirex Niigata | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 13:13 | 19 |
| 4 | Toyama | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 18:9 | 17 |
| 5 | Yokohama FC | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 19:13 | 17 |
| 6 | Shonan Bellmare | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 10:8 | 16 |
| 7 | Oita Trinita | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 11:8 | 14 |
| 8 | Fujieda MYFC | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13:11 | 13 |
| 9 | Blaublitz | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 12:10 | 13 |
| 10 | Iwata | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 12:13 | 13 |
| 11 | Tokushima | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 10:12 | 13 |
| 12 | Montedio Yamagata | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 11:8 | 12 |
| 13 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13:13 | 12 |
| 14 | Sagan Tosu | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9:12 | 11 |
| 15 | Tochigi City | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 16:17 | 10 |
| 16 | Imabari | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 11:19 | 10 |
| 17 | Kofu | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 9:18 | 10 |
| 18 | Vanraure | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 6:17 | 10 |
| 19 | Iwaki | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12:17 | 9 |
| 20 | Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12:19 | 8 |
Promotion - J1 League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - J2 League (Promotion)
Relegation - J3 League 2027/2028 (Main)
