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Stadium Background

Montedio Yamagata vs Vanraure

Japan Japan

J2/J3 League ND Soft Stadium Yamagata, Tendo
Montedio Yamagata Logo

Montedio Yamagata

1 - 0
FT
Vanraure Logo

Vanraure

Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Kokubu S.
17'
Sub
Kumamoto Y. In: Nishimura K.
Out: Kumamoto Y.
39'
Nishimura K.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Montedio Yamagata in this J2/J3 League matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Montedio Yamagata.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Montedio Yamagata
40%
Draws
29%
Vanraure
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Montedio Yamagata have won more games recently than Vanraure.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Regular J2/J3 League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Montedio Yamagata Clean Sheet 18%
Vanraure Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montedio Yamagata Vanraure
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 14 7
Draws 3 5
Losses 13 17
Goals Scored 1.25 0.63
Goals Conceded 2 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 J2/J3 League
Montedio Yamagata vs Vanraure
1:0
Apr 5, 2026 J2/J3 League
Vanraure vs Montedio Yamagata
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montedio Yamagata Compare

Top Goalscorer Kokubu S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Vanraure Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montedio Yamagata 32 / 100
Vanraure 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montedio Yamagata Vanraure

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Montedio Yamagata scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Vanraure let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 1.50 goals as a typical output.

Montedio Yamagata went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Montedio Yamagata VS Vanraure
1.25 Goals Scored 0.63
2 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 38%
75% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Montedio Yamagata

(Home)
25 Jul
Albirex Niigata
3 : 4
Montedio Yamagata
07 Jun
Oita Trinita
1 : 0
Montedio Yamagata
31 May
Montedio Yamagata
1 : 2
Matsumoto Yamaga
24 May
Montedio Yamagata
3 : 1
Shonan Bellmare
16 May
Tochigi City
3 : 0
Montedio Yamagata
Page 1 of 6

Vanraure

(Away)
16 Jul
Kawasaki Frontale
0 : 0
Vanraure
07 Jun
Vanraure
1 : 2
Imabari
01 Jun
Vanraure
0 : 1
Fukushima United
24 May
Vanraure
0 : 0
Tochigi SC
16 May
SC Sagamihara
1 : 2
Vanraure
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vegalta Sendai 18 16 0 2 37:15 43
2 Blaublitz 18 11 0 7 23:16 35
3 Shonan Bellmare 18 11 0 7 28:20 31
4 Yokohama FC 18 10 0 8 36:28 29
5 SC Sagamihara 18 9 0 9 33:36 28
6 Thespakusatsu Gunma 18 7 0 11 27:39 23
7 Montedio Yamagata 18 8 0 10 22:25 22
8 Tochigi City 18 7 0 11 22:35 21
9 Vanraure 17 5 0 12 16:23 18
10 Tochigi SC 17 5 0 12 24:31 17
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Placement Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kofu 17 11 0 6 20:12 33
2 Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 18 11 0 7 28:22 31
3 Iwaki 18 11 0 7 26:20 31
4 Omiya Ardija 18 10 0 8 39:29 30
5 Fujieda MYFC 18 9 0 9 24:23 30
6 Gifu 17 9 0 8 23:25 27
7 Matsumoto Yamaga 18 8 0 10 33:25 26
8 Iwata 18 9 0 9 20:25 25
9 Fukushima United 18 6 0 12 30:43 18
10 Nagano Parceiro 18 5 0 13 17:36 16
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Placement Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Toyama 18 13 0 5 40:26 38
2 Albirex Niigata 18 12 0 6 24:19 35
3 Tokushima 18 11 0 7 38:23 32
4 Kochi United 18 10 0 8 25:23 30
5 Ehime 18 9 0 9 26:20 28
6 Kanazawa 18 10 0 8 20:23 27
7 Nara Club 18 7 0 11 27:36 21
8 FC Osaka 18 6 0 12 18:23 20
9 Imabari 18 6 0 12 15:21 20
10 Kamatamare Sanuki 18 6 0 12 15:34 19
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Placement Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tegevajaro Miyazaki 18 15 0 3 35:13 47
2 Kagoshima United 18 12 0 6 27:16 33
3 Sagan Tosu 18 10 0 8 26:18 32
4 Renofa Yamaguchi 18 10 0 8 27:24 29
5 Kumamoto 18 9 0 9 21:21 27
6 Gainare Tottori 18 10 0 8 24:25 27
7 Oita Trinita 18 7 0 11 19:20 22
8 Reilac Shiga 18 7 0 11 16:29 21
9 Ryukyu 18 6 0 12 17:28 17
10 Giravanz Kitakyushu 18 4 0 14 17:35 15
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Placement Play Offs)