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Montegiorgio vs Vigor Senigallia Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
De Angelis A.
(Penalty)
61' Event
Pesaresi D.
90' Event
Perpepaj D.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group F 2022/2023 game between Montegiorgio and Vigor Senigallia finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Montegiorgio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Montegiorgio
15%
Draws
69%
Vigor Senigallia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Vigor Senigallia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Vigor Senigallia come out ahead of Montegiorgio on wins alone.
  • 69% — that's where the model lands on Vigor Senigallia taking it.
  • Regular Serie D - Group F 2022/2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Montegiorgio Clean Sheet 18%
Vigor Senigallia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montegiorgio Vigor Senigallia
Matches Played 30 39
Wins 6 16
Draws 9 14
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 0.67 1.64
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 1.36
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 7, 2023 Serie D - Group F
Montegiorgio vs Vigor Senigallia
2:1
Dec 21, 2022 Serie D - Group F
Vigor Senigallia vs Montegiorgio
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montegiorgio Compare

Top Goalscorer Perpepaj D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.61

Vigor Senigallia Compare

Top Goalscorer Pesaresi D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.24
Avg xA / game 0.76

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montegiorgio 10 / 100
Vigor Senigallia 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montegiorgio Vigor Senigallia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vigor Senigallia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Vigor Senigallia conceded in 77% of 39 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Montegiorgio's goal record stands at 50% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Montegiorgio went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Vigor Senigallia
0 Goals Scored 1.63
0 Goals Conceded 1.25
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Montegiorgio

(Home)
14 May
Notaresco Calcio
2 : 1
Montegiorgio
07 May
Montegiorgio
2 : 1
Vigor Senigallia
30 Apr
Vastogirardi
2 : 0
Montegiorgio
23 Apr
Montegiorgio
0 : 1
Matese
16 Apr
Fano
3 : 1
Montegiorgio
Page 1 of 6

Vigor Senigallia

(Away)
27 Sept
Vigor Senigallia
0 : 0
Fossombrone
20 Sept
Termoli
1 : 2
Vigor Senigallia
16 Sept
Lanciano FC
1 : 2
Vigor Senigallia
13 Sept
Vigor Senigallia
1 : 0
Giulianova
06 Sept
Sporting Trestina
2 : 5
Vigor Senigallia
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pineto 34 21 9 4 50:21 72
2 Vigor Senigallia 34 20 7 7 52:34 67
3 Trastevere Calcio 34 18 8 8 56:41 62
4 Fano 34 18 6 10 45:34 60
5 Cynthialbalonga 34 13 13 8 32:23 52
6 Matese 34 12 11 11 44:38 47
7 Sambenedettese 34 13 8 13 39:37 46
8 Calcio Chieti 34 12 10 12 29:27 46
9 Porto D'Ascoli 34 10 15 9 28:27 45
10 Vastogirardi 34 10 13 11 30:31 42
11 Nuova Florida 34 11 9 14 33:44 42
12 Avezzano 34 11 7 16 35:41 40
13 Roma City 34 9 10 15 29:42 37
14 Vastese 34 8 12 14 37:43 36
15 Termoli 34 5 19 10 25:34 34
16 Notaresco Calcio 34 6 13 15 23:41 31
17 Montegiorgio 34 7 10 17 21:34 31
18 US Tolentino 34 7 10 17 25:41 31
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2022/2023 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2022/2023 (Play Out)