Sport Picks

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Montego Bay vs Chapelton

Jamaica Jamaica

Premier League Wespow Park, Montego Bay
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Brown D.
86' Event
Merrick D.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Montego Bay and Chapelton finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Montego Bay.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Montego Bay
15%
Draws
28%
Chapelton
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Montego Bay

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Montego Bay come out ahead of Chapelton on wins alone.
  • Model gives Montego Bay a 57% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Montego Bay here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
Montego Bay Clean Sheet 15%
Chapelton Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montego Bay Chapelton
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 16 12
Draws 7 4
Losses 8 15
Goals Scored 1.97 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.06 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 2.81 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Premier League
Montego Bay vs Chapelton
2:0
Mar 22, 2026 Premier League
Chapelton vs Montego Bay
3:1
Jan 25, 2026 Premier League
Montego Bay vs Chapelton
2:0
Oct 5, 2025 Premier League
Chapelton vs Montego Bay
1:2
Mar 10, 2025 Premier League
Chapelton vs Montego Bay
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montego Bay Compare

Top Goalscorer Brown D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Merrick D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.41

Chapelton Compare

Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montego Bay 84 / 100
Chapelton 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montego Bay Chapelton

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Montego Bay Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montego Bay's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Chapelton let in goals in 68% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Recent resilience: Montego Bay stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Montego Bay VS Chapelton
2.5 Goals Scored 1.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 3.13
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Montego Bay

(Home)
13 Sept
Montego Bay
2 : 0
Chapelton
24 May
Montego Bay
2 : 3
Mount Pleasant
21 May
Montego Bay
0 : 2
Cavalier
17 May
Cavalier
0 : 1
Montego Bay
06 May
Mount Pleasant
2 : 1
Montego Bay
Page 1 of 7

Chapelton

(Away)
13 Sept
Montego Bay
2 : 0
Chapelton
06 May
Chapelton
2 : 7
Arnett Gardens
03 May
Waterhouse
3 : 0
Chapelton
26 Apr
Chapelton
6 : 2
Spanish Town Police
24 Apr
Mount Pleasant
5 : 2
Chapelton
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Racing United 2 2 0 0 4:2 6
2 Tru-Juice FC 2 1 1 0 4:0 4
3 Tivoli 2 1 1 0 4:1 4
4 Montego Bay 2 1 1 0 2:0 4
5 Cavalier 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
6 Molynes United 2 1 0 1 4:4 3
7 Chapelton 2 1 0 1 2:3 3
8 Treasure Beach 2 0 1 1 3:4 1
9 Portmore 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
10 Waterhouse 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
11 Arnett Gardens 1 0 0 1 2:3 0
12 FC Dunbeholden 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
13 Humble Lions 1 0 0 1 0:3 0
14 Mount Pleasant 2 0 0 2 0:5 0
Promotion - Premier League (Play Offs)
Promotion - Premier League (Play Offs)