Sport Picks
Monterey Bay vs New Mexico Prediction & H2H Stats
USA
USL Championship Cardinale Stadium, Seaside, CA 
Match Events
6'
6'
Noel V.
Assist: Gloster C.
17'
17'
Jabang O.
31'
31'
Nakamura R.
Assist: Montes J.
AI Match Summary
The USL Championship game between Monterey Bay and New Mexico finished 2-5, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward New Mexico.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
26%
35%
39%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: New Mexico
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
35%
/ Low Confidence
- New Mexico carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans Monterey Bay's way, sitting at 42%.
- Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Monterey Bay Clean Sheet 10%
New Mexico Clean Sheet 11%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Monterey Bay | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 30 |
| Wins | 5 | 16 |
| Draws | 6 | 8 |
| Losses | 17 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 1.25 | 1.7 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.86 | 1.2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.25 | 2.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 9, 2026 USL Championship
Monterey Bay vs New Mexico
2:5
Sep 21, 2025 USL Championship
Monterey Bay vs New Mexico
1:1
Apr 24, 2025 USL Championship
New Mexico vs Monterey Bay
1:0
Aug 18, 2024 USL Championship
New Mexico vs Monterey Bay
3:2
Jun 2, 2024 USL Championship
Monterey Bay vs New Mexico
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Monterey Bay Compare
Top Goalscorer Nakamura R.
1 Goals Assists Leader Lletget S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63
New Mexico Compare
Top Goalscorer Noel V.
2 Goals Assists Leader Hurst G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Monterey Bay 40 / 100
New Mexico 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Monterey Bay New Mexico
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.
Monterey Bay found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (28 games).
New Mexico has conceded goals in 63% of their last 30 outings.
Monterey Bay went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Monterey Bay VS New Mexico
1 Goals Scored 2.13
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Monterey Bay
(Home) 27 Sept
Monterey Bay
2 : 3 Lexington
19 Sept
Charleston
1 : 0 Monterey Bay
06 Sept
Monterey Bay
1 : 1 Phoenix Rising
30 Aug
Monterey Bay
1 : 1 Sacramento Republic
22 Aug
Rhode Island
3 : 1 Monterey Bay
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Monterey Bay
2 : 3 Lexington
06 Sept
Monterey Bay
1 : 1 Phoenix Rising
30 Aug
Monterey Bay
1 : 1 Sacramento Republic
09 Aug
Monterey Bay
2 : 5 New Mexico
26 Jul
Monterey Bay
1 : 2 Orange County SC
Page 1 of 3
New Mexico
(Away) 01 Oct
FC Tulsa
1 : 0 New Mexico
27 Sept
New Mexico
2 : 3 Sacramento Republic
20 Sept
Colorado Springs
0 : 0 New Mexico
17 Sept
Birmingham Legion
4 : 4 New Mexico
12 Sept
New Mexico
2 : 2 Indy Eleven
Page 1 of 6
01 Oct
FC Tulsa
1 : 0 New Mexico
20 Sept
Colorado Springs
0 : 0 New Mexico
17 Sept
Birmingham Legion
4 : 4 New Mexico
06 Sept
Las Vegas Lights
1 : 2 New Mexico
22 Aug
Loudoun United
0 : 0 New Mexico
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 46:25 | 52 |
| 2 | Detroit City | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 33:20 | 47 |
| 3 | Charleston | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 52:31 | 46 |
| 4 | Hartford Athletic | 26 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 29:26 | 39 |
| 5 | Rhode Island | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 39:29 | 38 |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 28:27 | 38 |
| 7 | Louisville City | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 43:42 | 37 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 38:45 | 36 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 33:33 | 34 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 32:44 | 24 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 26 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 36:43 | 23 |
| 12 | Brooklyn FC | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 27:55 | 18 |
| 13 | Sporting Jax | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 32:73 | 14 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 46:35 | 47 |
| 2 | Sacramento Republic | 27 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 37:25 | 44 |
| 3 | Lexington | 27 | 13 | 4 | 10 | 49:33 | 43 |
| 4 | New Mexico | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 39:31 | 43 |
| 5 | FC Tulsa | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 32:25 | 42 |
| 6 | Colorado Springs | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40:37 | 40 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 36:42 | 39 |
| 8 | San Antonio FC | 27 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 29:29 | 38 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 35:38 | 36 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 33:35 | 34 |
| 11 | Phoenix Rising | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 35:38 | 33 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 27 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 29:47 | 21 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
