Sport Picks
Monterey Bay vs Phoenix Rising Prediction & H2H Stats
USA
USL Championship Cardinale Stadium, Seaside, CA 
Match Events
55'
55'
Barajas F.
68'
68'
Sub
Badji D. In: Studenhofft G.
Out: Badji D.
68'
68'
Sub
Gomez D. In: Schmitt T.
Out: Gomez D.
AI Match Summary
The USL Championship game between Monterey Bay and Phoenix Rising finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
16%
30%
54%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Phoenix Rising
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
54%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Phoenix Rising come out ahead of Monterey Bay on wins alone.
- Model gives Phoenix Rising a 54% chance of winning this.
- Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Monterey Bay Clean Sheet 13%
Phoenix Rising Clean Sheet 15%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Monterey Bay | Phoenix Rising |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 5 | 10 |
| Draws | 6 | 8 |
| Losses | 18 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.21 | 1.27 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.9 | 1.53 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 1.69 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 6, 2026 USL Championship
Monterey Bay vs Phoenix Rising
1:1
Jul 19, 2026 USL Championship
Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay
3:2
May 18, 2025 USL Championship
Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay
2:0
Mar 30, 2025 USL Championship
Monterey Bay vs Phoenix Rising
3:1
Oct 5, 2024 USL Championship
Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Monterey Bay Compare
Top Goalscorer Nakamura R.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5
Phoenix Rising Compare
Top Goalscorer Flores D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Monterey Bay 14 / 100
Phoenix Rising 66 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Monterey Bay Phoenix Rising
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Phoenix Rising Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Phoenix Rising's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.
These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.
Monterey Bay found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).
Solid form: Monterey Bay remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Monterey Bay VS Phoenix Rising
1 Goals Scored 1.38
2 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Monterey Bay
(Home) 27 Sept
Monterey Bay
2 : 3 Lexington
19 Sept
Charleston
1 : 0 Monterey Bay
06 Sept
Monterey Bay
1 : 1 Phoenix Rising
30 Aug
Monterey Bay
1 : 1 Sacramento Republic
22 Aug
Rhode Island
3 : 1 Monterey Bay
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Monterey Bay
2 : 3 Lexington
06 Sept
Monterey Bay
1 : 1 Phoenix Rising
30 Aug
Monterey Bay
1 : 1 Sacramento Republic
09 Aug
Monterey Bay
2 : 5 New Mexico
26 Jul
Monterey Bay
1 : 2 Orange County SC
Page 1 of 3
Phoenix Rising
(Away) 27 Sept
Oakland Roots
3 : 0 Phoenix Rising
20 Sept
Phoenix Rising
1 : 3 El Paso Locomotive
13 Sept
Phoenix Rising
2 : 1 FC Tulsa
06 Sept
Monterey Bay
1 : 1 Phoenix Rising
30 Aug
Phoenix Rising
2 : 1 Indy Eleven
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Oakland Roots
3 : 0 Phoenix Rising
06 Sept
Monterey Bay
1 : 1 Phoenix Rising
23 Aug
Sacramento Republic
2 : 2 Phoenix Rising
08 Aug
Lexington
1 : 0 Phoenix Rising
02 Aug
Las Vegas Lights
1 : 1 Phoenix Rising
Page 1 of 4
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 26 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 45:23 | 52 |
| 2 | Charleston | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 52:31 | 46 |
| 3 | Detroit City | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 29:19 | 41 |
| 4 | Hartford Athletic | 26 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 29:26 | 39 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 28:27 | 38 |
| 6 | Louisville City | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 43:42 | 37 |
| 7 | Indy Eleven | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 32:31 | 33 |
| 8 | Rhode Island | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 35:28 | 32 |
| 9 | Miami FC | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 32:43 | 30 |
| 10 | Birmingham Legion | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 36:42 | 23 |
| 11 | Loudoun United | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 31:43 | 23 |
| 12 | Brooklyn FC | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25:49 | 18 |
| 13 | Sporting Jax | 26 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 31:69 | 14 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive | 26 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 45:32 | 47 |
| 2 | New Mexico | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 39:30 | 43 |
| 3 | Lexington | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 46:32 | 40 |
| 4 | Sacramento Republic | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 33:22 | 40 |
| 5 | Colorado Springs | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 40:37 | 39 |
| 6 | Orange County SC | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 35:40 | 39 |
| 7 | FC Tulsa | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 30:24 | 38 |
| 8 | San Antonio FC | 26 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 29:28 | 38 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 32:35 | 33 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 33:35 | 33 |
| 11 | Phoenix Rising | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 35:38 | 33 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 27:46 | 18 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
