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Monterrey vs Chicago Fire

North & Central America North & Central America

Leagues Cup
Wed, Aug 26, 2026
VS
12:30 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Leagues Cup. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. Chicago Fire have shipped 1.41 goals a game lately, while Monterrey have conceded 1.39 and scored 1.71. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. The numbers (1.81 xG vs 1.63) point toward Chicago Fire. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Monterrey
15%
Draws
47%
Chicago Fire
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Chicago Fire

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Chicago Fire come out ahead of Monterrey on wins alone.
  • Monterrey are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Chicago Fire arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • These two have never met before — a fresh matchup with no historical pattern to lean on.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
Monterrey Clean Sheet 14%
Chicago Fire Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Monterrey Chicago Fire
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 11 16
Draws 6 3
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 1.71 2
Goals Conceded 1.39 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Monterrey 48 / 100
Chicago Fire 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Monterrey Chicago Fire

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Monterrey Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Monterrey scored in 79% of their last 28 games.

Chicago Fire's defensive record shows goals conceded in 74% of 27 matches.

Solid form: Monterrey remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Monterrey VS Chicago Fire
2.25 Goals Scored 2
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Monterrey

(Home)
16 Aug
Monterrey
6 : 1
Juarez
13 Aug
Monterrey
2 : 1
Nashville SC
09 Aug
Inter Miami
1 : 2
Monterrey
05 Aug
Monterrey
1 : 2
Orlando City
02 Aug
Atlas
0 : 2
Monterrey
Page 1 of 6

Chicago Fire

(Away)
19 Aug
Orlando City
1 : 2
Chicago Fire
16 Aug
Chicago Fire
2 : 1
Portland Timbers
14 Aug
Cruz Azul
1 : 2
Chicago Fire
10 Aug
Chicago Fire
3 : 1
Santos Laguna
07 Aug
Chicago Fire
2 : 0
Necaxa
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Club Leon -
Real Salt Lake -
Toluca -
Austin FC -
Monterrey -
Chicago Fire -
Club America -
Columbus Crew -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -