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Monterrey vs Pachuca - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX Estadio BBVA, Monterrey
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Ocampos L.
Penalty Missed
13' Event
Rossi D.
16' Event
Corona J.
Assist: Ocampos L.

AI Match Summary

Monterrey in this Liga MX matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Monterrey.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Monterrey
30%
Draws
23%
Pachuca
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Monterrey

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Monterrey average 1.69 goals a game right now, well clear of Pachuca's 1.55.
  • Model gives Monterrey a 47% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Pachuca here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Monterrey Clean Sheet 15%
Pachuca Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Monterrey Pachuca
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 13
Draws 6 6
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.69 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.48 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 19, 2026 Liga MX
Monterrey vs Pachuca
2:1
Apr 19, 2026 Liga MX
Monterrey vs Pachuca
1:3
Jul 13, 2025 Liga MX
Pachuca vs Monterrey
3:0
Apr 28, 2025 Liga MX
Monterrey vs Pachuca
1:2
Jan 26, 2025 Liga MX
Monterrey vs Pachuca
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Monterrey Compare

Top Goalscorer Rossi D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Corona J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Pachuca Compare

Top Goalscorer Rondon S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Monterrey 39 / 100
Pachuca 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Monterrey Pachuca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Monterrey Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Monterrey found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

Pachuca let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Recent resilience: Monterrey stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Monterrey VS Pachuca
1.38 Goals Scored 1.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Monterrey

(Home)
19 Oct
Monterrey
2 : 1
Pachuca
11 Oct
Club America
1 : 1
Monterrey
03 Oct
Monterrey
2 : 1
Toluca
26 Sept
Atlante
4 : 2
Monterrey
20 Sept
Monterrey
1 : 0
Cruz Azul
Page 1 of 6

Pachuca

(Away)
19 Oct
Monterrey
2 : 1
Pachuca
11 Oct
Pachuca
3 : 3
Necaxa
27 Sept
Santos Laguna
1 : 0
Pachuca
21 Sept
Pachuca
2 : 2
Club Tijuana
12 Sept
Atlante
0 : 3
Pachuca
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Club America 11 7 3 1 27:14 24
2 Toluca 12 6 3 3 26:16 21
3 Atlas 12 6 3 3 19:18 21
4 Guadalajara Chivas 12 5 5 2 19:12 20
5 Cruz Azul 12 6 2 4 27:21 20
6 Queretaro 11 6 2 3 15:13 20
7 Club Leon 12 5 3 4 18:17 18
8 Monterrey 11 5 2 4 19:16 17
9 Santos Laguna 12 5 1 6 17:16 16
10 Club Tijuana 11 4 4 3 15:14 16
11 UNAM Pumas 12 4 4 4 19:20 16
12 Puebla 12 4 4 4 12:13 16
13 Tigres UANL 12 3 5 4 14:16 14
14 Pachuca 12 3 4 5 19:16 13
15 Atletico San Luis 12 3 4 5 16:21 13
16 Atlante 12 2 5 5 13:19 11
17 Necaxa 12 2 3 7 15:25 9
18 Juarez 12 1 1 10 8:31 4
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs)