Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Monterrey vs Pachuca

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX 2025/2026 Estadio BBVA, Monterrey
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Ocampos L.
(Penalty)
26'
Medina S.
26'
Rondon S.

AI Match Summary

The Liga MX 2025/2026 game between Monterrey and Pachuca finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Pachuca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Monterrey
39%
Draws
30%
Pachuca
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Pachuca come out ahead of Monterrey on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Liga MX 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Pachuca have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Monterrey Clean Sheet 16%
Pachuca Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Monterrey Pachuca
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 11 16
Draws 6 4
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 1.38 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Liga MX
Monterrey vs Pachuca
1:3
Jul 13, 2025 Liga MX
Pachuca vs Monterrey
3:0
Apr 28, 2025 Liga MX
Monterrey vs Pachuca
1:2
Jan 26, 2025 Liga MX
Monterrey vs Pachuca
2:3
Jul 8, 2024 Liga MX
Pachuca vs Monterrey
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Monterrey Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Pachuca Compare

Top Goalscorer Kenedy R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bautista A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Monterrey 31 / 100
Pachuca 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Monterrey Pachuca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Monterrey scored in 75% of their last 28 games.

Pachuca has conceded goals in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Monterrey has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Monterrey VS Pachuca
1.38 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Monterrey

(Home)
19 Jul
Monterrey
3 : 2
Santos Laguna
04 Jul
Atlante
1 : 1
Monterrey
21 Jun
Cancun
1 : 4
Monterrey
26 Apr
Santos Laguna
3 : 0
Monterrey
22 Apr
Monterrey
2 : 1
Puebla
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Pachuca

(Away)
18 Jul
UNAM Pumas
0 : 3
Pachuca
04 Jul
Pachuca
3 : 1
Puebla
18 May
UNAM Pumas
1 : 0
Pachuca
15 May
Pachuca
1 : 0
UNAM Pumas
10 May
Pachuca
2 : 0
Toluca
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1UNAM Pumas17106134:1736
2Guadalajara Chivas17113333:1736
3Cruz Azul1796231:1833
4Pachuca1794425:1931
5Toluca1786328:1630
6Atlas1775516:1826
7Tigres UANL1774628:1825
8Club America1774620:1725
9Club Tijuana1758419:1723
10Club Leon1771922:3222
11Queretaro1748517:2120
12Juarez1754826:3219
13Monterrey1753922:2418
14Atletico San Luis1753924:2718
15Necaxa1753919:2518
16Mazatlan FC17431022:3715
17Puebla17341013:2613
18Santos Laguna17331120:3812
Promotion - Liga MX 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)