Sport Picks
Monterrey W vs Toluca W
Mexico
Liga MX Women Cancha El Barrial, Santiago 
Match Events
12'
12'
Chavarin A.
Assist: Servin F.
15'
15'
Veje K.
21'
21'
Garcia D.
AI Match Summary
The Liga MX Women game between Monterrey W and Toluca W finished 5-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Monterrey W.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
49%
15%
36%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Monterrey W
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
49%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Monterrey W come out ahead of Toluca W on wins alone.
- 49% — that's where the model lands on Monterrey W taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Monterrey W have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Monterrey W Clean Sheet 11%
Toluca W Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Monterrey W | Toluca W |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 20 | 17 |
| Draws | 5 | 4 |
| Losses | 5 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 2.53 | 2.24 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.97 | 1.86 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.25 | 1.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 6, 2026 Liga MX Women
Monterrey W vs Toluca W
5:1
Feb 10, 2026 Liga MX Women
Monterrey W vs Toluca W
2:0
Sep 13, 2025 Liga MX Women
Toluca W vs Monterrey W
0:1
Mar 30, 2025 Liga MX Women
Toluca W vs Monterrey W
2:2
Nov 12, 2024 Liga MX Women
Monterrey W vs Toluca W
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Monterrey W Compare
Top Goalscorer Chavarin A.
2 Goals Assists Leader Seoposenwe J.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13
Toluca W Compare
Top Goalscorer Henry A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Monterrey W 83 / 100
Toluca W 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Monterrey W Toluca W
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Monterrey W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Monterrey W found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (30 games).
Defensive concern: Toluca W conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.
Games between these two average 2.80 goals.
Monterrey W has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Monterrey W VS Toluca W
2.63 Goals Scored 2.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Monterrey W
(Home) 19 Sept
Monterrey W
10 : 0 Necaxa W
12 Sept
Guadalajara Chivas W
2 : 3 Monterrey W
06 Sept
Monterrey W
5 : 1 Toluca W
29 Aug
Queretaro W
0 : 4 Monterrey W
22 Aug
Monterrey W
2 : 3 Club Leon W
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Monterrey W
10 : 0 Necaxa W
06 Sept
Monterrey W
5 : 1 Toluca W
22 Aug
Monterrey W
2 : 3 Club Leon W
09 Aug
Monterrey W
3 : 1 Atlante W
15 May
Monterrey W
1 : 0 Club America W
Page 1 of 3
Toluca W
(Away) 22 Sept
Toluca W
2 : 7 Tigres UANL W
15 Sept
Toluca W
6 : 0 Club Tijuana W
06 Sept
Monterrey W
5 : 1 Toluca W
29 Aug
Toluca W
1 : 0 Club Leon W
24 Aug
Atlante W
1 : 2 Toluca W
Page 1 of 6
06 Sept
Monterrey W
5 : 1 Toluca W
24 Aug
Atlante W
1 : 2 Toluca W
03 Aug
Atletico San Luis W
1 : 4 Toluca W
10 May
Club America W
4 : 3 Toluca W
04 May
Tigres UANL W
1 : 2 Toluca W
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monterrey W | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 33:9 | 21 |
| 2 | Tigres UANL W | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 28:8 | 21 |
| 3 | Juarez W | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 14:6 | 21 |
| 4 | Toluca W | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 | Club Leon W | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 15:12 | 12 |
| 6 | Santos Laguna W | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12:20 | 12 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul W | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 11:21 | 12 |
| 8 | Atlante W | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 9 | Queretaro W | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 10:21 | 6 |
Promotion - Liga MX Women (Apertura - Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America W | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 37:7 | 22 |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas W | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 20:11 | 18 |
| 3 | Atletico San Luis W | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 21:15 | 15 |
| 4 | UNAM Pumas W | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 17:14 | 12 |
| 5 | Atlas W | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10:17 | 12 |
| 6 | Pachuca W | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 13:13 | 10 |
| 7 | Club Tijuana W | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 12:24 | 6 |
| 8 | Puebla W | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 12:36 | 3 |
| 9 | Necaxa W | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3:32 | 0 |
Promotion - Liga MX Women (Apertura - Play Offs)
