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Montevarchi vs Grosseto

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E
Our Tip

Match Events

44' Event
Disanto F.
60' Event
Sabelli P.
81' Event
Marzierli E.

AI Match Summary

Grosseto in this Serie D - Group E matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Grosseto.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Montevarchi
39%
Draws
31%
Grosseto
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Grosseto have won more games recently than Montevarchi.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Serie D - Group E form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 52%
Over 2.5 Goals 23%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
Montevarchi Clean Sheet 68%
Grosseto Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montevarchi Grosseto
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 18
Draws 14 5
Losses 7 7
Goals Scored 0.43 1.25
Goals Conceded 0.43 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 0.43 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.43 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 18, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Montevarchi vs Grosseto
0:3
Sep 20, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Grosseto vs Montevarchi
3:1
Apr 19, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Grosseto vs Montevarchi
1:1
Dec 8, 2024 Serie D - Group E
Montevarchi vs Grosseto
1:2
Aug 19, 2024 Club Friendly
Grosseto vs Montevarchi
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montevarchi Compare

Avg xG / game 0.33
Avg xA / game 0.21

Grosseto Compare

Top Goalscorer Disanto F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sabelli P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montevarchi 41 / 100
Grosseto 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montevarchi Grosseto

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MON Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Montevarchi went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Grosseto lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Montevarchi's goal record stands at 53% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Montevarchi VS Grosseto
0.43 Goals Scored 1.25
0.43 Goals Conceded 1.25
29% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Montevarchi

(Home)
03 May
Prato
1 : 0
Montevarchi
26 Apr
Montevarchi
1 : 0
Ghiviborgo
19 Apr
Siena
0 : 0
Montevarchi
12 Apr
Montevarchi
1 : 1
Terranuova Traiana
02 Apr
Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro
0 : 0
Montevarchi
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Grosseto

(Away)
29 Jul
Grosseto
1 : 2
San Donato Tavarnelle
17 May
Desenzano Calvina
0 : 1
Grosseto
13 May
Grosseto
2 : 3
Ostiamare
02 May
Ghiviborgo
0 : 3
Grosseto
26 Apr
Grosseto
0 : 2
San Donato Tavarnelle
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Grosseto34226658:2572
2Tau34189753:3363
3Prato34205949:2963
4Siena34179857:3560
5Seravezza Pozzi341512742:2957
6Terranuova Traiana341491128:3051
7Foligno341491145:3751
8Scandicci341115839:3248
9Montevarchi341016828:3246
10Sporting Trestina3410121240:4242
11San Donato Tavarnelle349131230:3540
12Ghiviborgo3410101442:4440
13Orvietana349111433:3738
14Follonica Gavorrano349101536:4937
15Camaiore Calcio34981741:5435
16Poggibonsi347101729:4631
17Cannara34682024:5926
18Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro342161620:4622
Promotion - Serie D - Group E (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E (Play Out)