Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Montevarchi vs Terranuova Traiana

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Lovari L.
90' Event
Marini A.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Serie D - Group E matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Montevarchi
33%
Draws
27%
Terranuova Traiana
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Montevarchi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Terranuova Traiana lately — more wins on the board than Montevarchi.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Montevarchi taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63%
Montevarchi Clean Sheet 20%
Terranuova Traiana Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montevarchi Terranuova Traiana
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 12
Draws 14 9
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 0.88 0.63
Goals Conceded 0.38 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.38 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Montevarchi vs Terranuova Traiana
1:1
Nov 30, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Terranuova Traiana vs Montevarchi
1:0
Feb 16, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Terranuova Traiana vs Montevarchi
0:0
Oct 19, 2024 Serie D - Group E
Montevarchi vs Terranuova Traiana
5:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montevarchi Compare

Top Goalscorer Lovari L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Terranuova Traiana Compare

Top Goalscorer Marini A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montevarchi 40 / 100
Terranuova Traiana 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montevarchi Terranuova Traiana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MON Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Montevarchi stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Montevarchi's goal record stands at 53% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Terranuova Traiana conceded in 57% of 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Montevarchi VS Terranuova Traiana
0.88 Goals Scored 0.63
0.38 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Montevarchi

(Home)
03 May
Prato
1 : 0
Montevarchi
26 Apr
Montevarchi
1 : 0
Ghiviborgo
19 Apr
Siena
0 : 0
Montevarchi
12 Apr
Montevarchi
1 : 1
Terranuova Traiana
02 Apr
Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro
0 : 0
Montevarchi
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Terranuova Traiana

(Away)
03 May
Terranuova Traiana
0 : 0
Orvietana
26 Apr
Tau
3 : 2
Terranuova Traiana
19 Apr
Terranuova Traiana
2 : 1
Camaiore Calcio
12 Apr
Montevarchi
1 : 1
Terranuova Traiana
03 Apr
Terranuova Traiana
0 : 0
Sporting Trestina
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Grosseto34226658:2572
2Tau34189753:3363
3Prato34205949:2963
4Siena34179857:3560
5Seravezza Pozzi341512742:2957
6Terranuova Traiana341491128:3051
7Foligno341491145:3751
8Scandicci341115839:3248
9Montevarchi341016828:3246
10Sporting Trestina3410121240:4242
11San Donato Tavarnelle349131230:3540
12Ghiviborgo3410101442:4440
13Orvietana349111433:3738
14Follonica Gavorrano349101536:4937
15Camaiore Calcio34981741:5435
16Poggibonsi347101729:4631
17Cannara34682024:5926
18Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro342161620:4622
Promotion - Serie D - Group E (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E (Play Out)