Sport Picks
AI Match Summary
The Serie D - Group F 2017/2018 game between Monticelli and Matelica finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
27%
30%
43%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Matelica
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
43%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Matelica come out ahead of Monticelli on wins alone.
- Matelica are the model's pick here, at 80%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Monticelli Clean Sheet 18%
Matelica Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Monticelli | Matelica |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 32 |
| Wins | 5 | 14 |
| Draws | 13 | 8 |
| Losses | 12 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 0.7 | 1.59 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.17 | 1.36 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 4, 2018 Serie D - Group F
Monticelli vs Matelica
1:1
Oct 1, 2017 Serie D - Group F
Matelica vs Monticelli
2:1
Mar 5, 2017 Serie D - Group F
Matelica vs Monticelli
2:0
Nov 16, 2016 Serie D - Group F
Monticelli vs Matelica
0:2
Apr 10, 2016 Serie D - Group F
Monticelli vs Matelica
1:0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Monticelli 12 / 100
Matelica 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Monticelli Matelica
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Matelica Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Matelica's defensive record shows goals conceded in 78% of 32 matches.
Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.
Monticelli went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Attacking prowess: Monticelli scored in 53% of their last 30 outings.
Scoring Trends
- VS Matelica
0 Goals Scored 1.63
0 Goals Conceded 1.13
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Monticelli
(Home) 06 May
ASD Francavilla
2 : 1 Monticelli
29 Apr
Monticelli
1 : 0 Castelfidardo
22 Apr
Agnonese
6 : 0 Monticelli
15 Apr
Monticelli
1 : 1 Nerostellati Pratola
08 Apr
Fabriano Cerreto
1 : 2 Monticelli
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29 Apr
Monticelli
1 : 0 Castelfidardo
15 Apr
Monticelli
1 : 1 Nerostellati Pratola
29 Mar
Monticelli
0 : 0 Notaresco Calcio
04 Mar
Monticelli
1 : 0 Vis Pesaro
18 Feb
Monticelli
3 : 1 Vastese
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Matelica
(Away) 26 May
Renate
1 : 1 Matelica
23 May
Matelica
1 : 1 Renate
19 May
Cesena
2 : 3 Matelica
09 May
Matelica
3 : 1 Sambenedettese
02 May
Matelica
3 : 0 Imolese
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26 May
Renate
1 : 1 Matelica
19 May
Cesena
2 : 3 Matelica
25 Apr
Perugia
2 : 0 Matelica
11 Apr
Carpi
4 : 1 Matelica
27 Mar
Gubbio
3 : 0 Matelica
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vis Pesaro | 34 | 23 | 4 | 7 | 61:29 | 73 |
| 2 | Matelica | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 66:28 | 71 |
| 3 | Avezzano | 34 | 16 | 14 | 4 | 51:26 | 62 |
| 4 | Pineto | 34 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 53:41 | 57 |
| 5 | Aquila Calcio | 34 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 57:40 | 55 |
| 6 | ASD Francavilla | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 47:38 | 53 |
| 7 | San Marino Calcio | 34 | 15 | 6 | 13 | 45:35 | 51 |
| 8 | Vastese | 34 | 15 | 6 | 13 | 55:50 | 51 |
| 9 | Sangiustese | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 39:41 | 48 |
| 10 | Campobasso | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 41:40 | 45 |
| 11 | Castelfidardo | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 43:54 | 44 |
| 12 | Recanatese | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 47:47 | 43 |
| 13 | Agnonese | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 34:35 | 41 |
| 14 | Notaresco Calcio | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 42:51 | 40 |
| 15 | Jesina | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 32:46 | 34 |
| 16 | Monticelli | 34 | 5 | 15 | 14 | 25:45 | 30 |
| 17 | Fabriano Cerreto | 34 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 29:69 | 20 |
| 18 | Nerostellati Pratola | 34 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 19:71 | 18 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2017/2018 (Winners stage)
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2017/2018 (Play Offs)
